I'm screwed then, over 2250 entries and no wins. Maybe, like buses they will all arrive at once?
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Yes, I had a 1 in a billion start. I think it is likely I was the luckiest person to ever join SteamGifts.
When I finally looked at my profile odds, I had something like 12 wins to like 2.8 probable wins. (is it just me or have they taken this statistic out?). And it was like the very first day I won my first gift, and 1 or 2 days after my second (and so on for I think 6 wins in rapid succession). I had another big batch of wins a few weeks latter. I never would of stuck around if it were otherwise. I win less than a game a month now, around what is statistically likely (if not less).
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It's the possibility of free games for virtually no effort. I'd be more surprised if it wasn't popular.
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Actually the mathematical expectation is less, you can find it by doing x/nx/nx/n.....*x/n where x=the number of copies and n=number of entries of players in a giveaway . You can't measure them by how many you entered since the expectation of you winning is diffrent in each . For example if x=1 and n=4 the mathematical expectation would be 1/256. Now you can blame maths .
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right idea, but bad calculation.
the chance for a single giveaway for practical cases can be approximated by copies/entries.
what you mean are the chances for winning one out of k giveaways. to calculate that you multiply the chances of not winning and subtract that from 1.
for example enter 50 giveaways with one copy and 100 entries gives = 1-(99/100)^50 = 0.39 meaning you hav 39% chance to win at least one out of these.
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WHAT THE HELL??? i think you don't know how this site works??
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I know how this web work, and i see so mutch similar webs (but other webs only fakes), this is why i ask PEOPLE.
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Probability of a win also reduces with every guff thread you post, it's a hidden rule.
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That's the problem, most people think exactly that. That they're "entitled" to a win because they've not won anything the past few times.
This isn't because people are dumb (though some of them are), it's because we have a hard time handling extreme probabilites. The difference for the casual observer between 1% and 0.07% is negligible ("it's a small chance"), same goes for the difference between 99% and 99.7%.
I actually fell for this myself when I started out on this site and had to do a quick calculation of the odds that I'd not won anything so far, turns out they were 72% despite already having joined hundreds of giveaways.
Moral of the story:
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I just joined myself 3 days ago and was slightly disappointed about not winning anything. But I never have really thought about the probability of it. Although I do wonder, if you host giveaways are you more likely to win in the contributor only ones because of lesser people than the free ones?
Sorry I am super tired atm, trying to fix my hours so if this post seems logicaly weird thats why.
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Giving away gifts gives you CV (contributer value) measured in $.
You can get up to $25 CV from bundled games. After that, bundled games can only take you to 120% of your CV. This means that bundled games alone can only get you $30 CV (1.2 * 25 = 30). Thus, there's a LOT more people with <= $30 CV than have $30.01 CV.
You will have (slightly) better chances once you start entering $30.01+ CV giveaways. You start to see a sharp dropoff in # of entries as the CV requirements get higher.
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Yeah, I entered a $999 CV giveaway the other day for Don't Starve. I was the 7th entrant and there was only a few minutes left. I think it was a quickfire, 1 hour giveaway too which meant there was an even more exaggerated drop off in terms of entrants.
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So, this means that a group of friends are able to create fake giveaways allowing only these friends to enter and no matter who wins, the winner will mark the gift as received, increasing contributor value of his friend who created it? This way a group of friends could increase contributor value of one another infinitely allowing everyone in the group to enter real giveaways from other people with very high contrib value?
I suppose abusing this kind of cheat would be easy to detect since the games would never show up on their accounts. BUT, if this group of friends are a bit smarter, they could still cheat whenever they agree to buy the same game. Then, instead of simply buying the game for their own accounts, they buy it as gifts and create private giveaways so they can give the games to themselves while increasing contributor value. The game would show up on their accounts since they bought it and gave to themselves.
Or did I get it wrong? How does Steamgifts prevent this kind of cheat?
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seems doable (is there such a word?). hard to do but doable.
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if you mean 2 entries, then yes but it requires total of 3 people at least. 2 entries and a giveaway creator. i hope people are not people enough to do something like that. (see also people as an insult)
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LET'S DO THIS!11!!!
but first i need to use my supa computa skillz to encrypt and hide this conversation and our (yes, it's not yours, it's ours from now on) evil plan from steamgifts staff. i don't want to get banned from sg. because the only ban i like -wears glasses- is ray-ban.
so dated joke? okay.:(
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There are several problems. First it would have to be real giveaways since SG checks for game in account, second it requires 2 entries at least which cuts the potential exploit in half.
Third, and most importantly, it is easy as hell to notice so after the first few they would be flagged and subsequently warned/suspended/banned.
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I love that tards...Why comment? 0 interest, 0 idea.
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Well your post is very stupid so you should expect this kind of answers.
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If is my post stupid, why you see and comment my ,,STUPID,, post? Why you wase time to comment?
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Because we don't value our time, or consider our potential amusement at your cost to be beneficial.
Frankly, we like making fun of people like you - who feel entitled to free games despite extremely low odds, who haven't bothered reading the FAQ, and who haven't read any of the other 11,000 topics on this same matter.
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Are you kidding me? This is FORUM.
to have a conversation of the community who wants to help / explain clicks and sand, who no ignore. So it works everywhere else on any site, it's perhaps not?
I dont say: ,, hey all say me now, fake or no?,,
I ask: ,, i have XXX enteris, but no win, normal or no?,,
Now say me what is bad? I know soooooomutch fake sites STEAM GIFTS FREE, this is why i ask.
If you have problem with it, meybe i am UFO. BUT when you go 1st time to new BAR, and need WC, when you ask, hate you people too?
-_-
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U very stoopid, me likes! Please stay and entertain us mur! You very funny! I likes ^^
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i feel bad for laughing to this. making fun of poor english is funny but not cool dude. not cool. me no likes. :(
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This being obviously machine translated, makes it totally OK though. Laugh your balls off with me! :D
Come on, this one's a keeper:
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it looks like he is -wears glasses- stranger to this site
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Ofcs, thx for your comment, but still 0 idea, 0 interest. If you wana hate, go pls to iNEEDonlyHATEpeople.com
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No mě zajímalo spíš, jestli tady opravdu někdo vyhrává nebo je to další z těch ,,fake gift stránek,, :D
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Myslíš ty klikačky ? mno,stačí se poohlédnout po jiných lidech.U každého vidíš kolik vyhrál.Ale měl jsi se zeptat opatrně.Tady se rozdávají hry za velký peníze.Ostatně to máš dole napsáno.Ale jsi tu dva týdny,snad jsi se zorientoval.
Rozdáno her za Gifts Valued at $8,736,361.12
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Jj, ale tak jistota je jistota, lepší se zeptat během několika sekund a posmát se nad ,,hejtema,, než měsíce klikat zbytečně :D
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Napiš na FB do zpráv,že chceš do skupiny na steamu.Jsem tam taky.Nesoutěží tisíc lidí...máš větší šanci na výhru. https://www.facebook.com/CZSKGamers?ref=ts&fref=ts
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Hello, i Giveaways Entered 83, but 0 win, not fake this web? Thx
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