You won 5 or more games for 1 month?
On average I win about 1 game a month, most are private or groups which have better odds
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enter GA with less entries. nothing else is happening
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Dude, there is no disbalance or such any thing, you just have to enter giveaways with less entries and be active so you won't miss any good chance, its about luck aswell.
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It's all about probability. If you entered GA for 1 copy of game with 10 entries you have 1/10=10% chance to win and, accordingly, 100%-10%=90% chance to lose. So you can win nothing even by regular entering of such GAs with low amount of entries. The probability of entering 100 GAs with 10 entries and winning nothing in a row is VERY low (but still exists :D). Approximately it's 0.9(didn't win the 1st GA)*0.9(2nd)*...*0.9(1000th) ~ 0.0000266 = 0.00266%. I wrote approximately, because I'm not sure that every single win/lose event are ideally independent, while the written formula is right only for independent events. The same thing for 100 GAs with 100 entries (which are easier and more realistic to find) will give ~36.6%. It's a significant chance not to win anything. So don't be surprised if you win not after entering the 100th GA with about 100 entries, but after 300th (5% that you won't win any of them).
All you need to do in order to win more is to maximize your probability of win. You can do it by entering GAs with lower amount of entries. Factors which influence this are: level restrictions (the higher is minimum level needed for GA - the lower is amount of entries), groups (there are lots of them), whitelists (participate in the community), hidden GAs (lurk the forums), puzzles (you can google zelghadis guide for solving puzzles), etc.
To be brief: participate in the community :) Good luck!
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I just count like I do it on bets : you can lose, you can win and draw.But there is no draw in giveaways so only 2 options remain. 100%/2 options = 50% chance to win every giveaway ^^ We are all just unlucky _)
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There is a theorem about dinosaur: if you go outside, there is 50% probability that you'll meet a dinosaur on the street.
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Nice theorem! _)
Math is boring anyways even if you have 0.0001 chance to win a giveaway, it doesn't mean you can win after 1 million entries in the same situation =\
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I win about one a week, even though I'm level one and I don't know when will I have something to give back. This community is just awesome, so I just like lurking the discussions.
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Yeah, but 75% of your wins are from invite only, and they're meh games. ^^
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I haven't won anything for over two years, because I haven't entered any giveaways for over two years. Comparing the number of giveaways entered is a better measure than comparing registration time. Even that is flawed, as has been said (not all giveaways have the same chance).
You're giving quite a lot (well done!) and soon you'll be eligible for Delta's group. That could help you win a little more.
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Maybe the RNG hates you.
I have more than 5000 entries but only 9 wins. RNG hates me for sure. Maybe because it doesn't like my username.
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If you look at my wins, you will see that about 85% of them have fewer than 30 entries in total. In other words, fewer entries means a better chance of winning.
As for the "spikes" where I win many games in a short period of time, that is due to the Simultaneous Giveaways events in which I participate. Again, there's no magic there, just a reduced number of entries.
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2 years and only 1.7k entries ? did u even try ? :P
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I don't logined long time until site renewed. And i try only games from wishlist (i dont want random game), also games with 50 copies )
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And i try only games from wishlist (i dont want random game)
well that's the problem. No unbalance happening on the site. You enter few, your chances are also few.
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Yes 25 wins after 3 month would be many...if those are all public GA with now or low-level restriction....so there is more the question those...or maybe that one example you are referring to...did he/she enter group , private whatever GAs with low entries....it´s easy for you to check this and answer the question yourself.
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got 12 wins in the last month. So that's not bad. Some with only 10/20 entries.
But you have always more Chance to lose then to win
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Disbalance? Or datbalance?
EDIT: I've been kinda lucky I guess, 20 games in 6 months
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I'm right there with you, brother. I'd be interested to see if there's anyone with a more extreme unbalanced ratio than me.
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Stop making giveaways and leech the shit out of Steamgifts, you have over 3000$ worth of games to win until aaaanyone can accuse you of leeching. Considering winning 1$ more than sent is leeching. :D
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Dude, you'd deserve to win games, you have given so much it's time to receive!
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There's a huge difference between shown CV and real CV though.
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Yeah, I am talking about shown CV tho. If you consider real CV he still has given an aweful lot more than he won.
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This guy talkin trash and I've given away more in non-bundled CV in the last 24 hours than he has ever.
:(
This is why I'm starting to like this site less and less.
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I know, right? That's why I'm saying keep feeding those people and think for yourself a bit here.
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joke memorized for future references. ty I3aran is an insult in russian.
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For Russians (and Poles), it can be. Just a "kid one"
You Ram is like You Stupid. Nothing you'll have to beep :P
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I enter by a simple formula and win for about 3-6 games per month
1) enter giveaways of wishlisted games that end in < 24h
2) enter giveaways where (points * entries) / copies < 5000 and end in < 1h
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Like I said here: You have to enter into giveaways with low entrant counts, seek out invite-only giveaways on the forums (including puzzles), and get in groups or on whitelists in order to maximize your chances.
It's all about probability. The fewer the entrants, the higher your chances are at winning. You decide how to spend your points and which giveaways to enter. If you want to win more games, enter the least-entered giveaways. If you want to win giveaways you want, enter into the giveaways you want regardless of entrant count.
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0 You're wasting your time in open giveaways if you're trying to win
1 join a small group
2 giveaway there
3 and likely win.
Entering a group-GA with only 20 entries is a 5% chance pretty damn high ...
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I just enter for wishlist stuff , and sometimes those massive giveaways ...
Overall from my 18 wins there are 12 games that i ACTUALLY wanted to play ... so i feel like im Okay .
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I only enter in wishlist and private (forum) giveaways. I've been inactive for about 15 months on this site, but about 3 months ago I returned and I won 8 games by now... you can't play with the odds.
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Some people, i see, win 24 games for 3 months (after registration). I won 1 game for 2 years. There disbalance? Or just some kind of "blacklist", for Russia, for example (sanctions or other reasons)?
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