Use ESGST to get an enter giveaway button on the main page without using any more shady scripts.
The only other advice I can give is to take a class on statistics! Random chance is just that - random - and the fact that you have won less than the calculations show you had a chance at winning doesn't mean anything except that random chance was random.
If you flip a coin 100 times you expect to get around 50 heads and 50 tails, but you can also get 100 heads or 100 tails, or any number inbetween. It's random. If you keep entering giveaways you'll win stuff, but there's no way to say how much.
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No you are not doing anything wrong. The estimate is also not wrong as it is just a simple calculation based on the amount of entries. But as CedericH said. Statistics are regarding the average but normally you have a Gauss curve which means there are people on the better and the worse side of the average. You could enter a million giveaways and still have not won a single one. It is unlikely but not impossible. So in regard to that you are just slightly unlucky. And it is not like you have lost anything.
As for the entering on giveaways from the main page: I'm not surely what the site policy is about that but as for my personal opinion I am against such a feature. People also use These giveaways to promote stuff, to share something which is important to them or just talk a bit. While many many MANY People ignore any kind of text in public giveaways it is kind of rude to say: I don't care for your shit I just want to enter the stupid giveaway to which entering from the main page would translate to.
And a script can not change your winning chances. That would be a serious problem. Also not the greatest fan of autojoining scripts. But that is another discussion -_-
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As for the entering on giveaways from the main page: I'm not surely what the site policy is about that but as for my personal opinion I am against such a feature. People also use These giveaways to promote stuff, to share something which is important to them or just talk a bit. While many many MANY People ignore any kind of text in public giveaways it is kind of rude to say: I don't care for your shit I just want to enter the stupid giveaway to which entering from the main page would translate to.
ESGST has an option which works like this:
There are "Enter" buttons for each giveaway on main page, you click the button, a modal window appears with giveaway description :)
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It's just luck. You can boost your luck with increasing your level, joining private groups, being in lots of whitelists, checking forum for private GAs.
See image, I've lost my luck recently, but in general you can say I'm lucky ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Now I understand a bit more why people still win giveaways living on countries that the creator writes the key is locked for.
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I'm supposedly "minus 17 gifts unlucky", with last month exceptionally bad (-5 gifts). Well, that's life ¯_(ツ)_/¯
:-)
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I have hundreds of winners who are confirmed AutoJoin or similar bot users. Some are literally bot accounts set up only for that reason, exploiting that they had to have a secondary account for CS:GO smurfing.
So yes, AutoJoin users, to my great dismay and annoyance, can win, and even worse, do win. A fucklot.
As for luck, I sent out 1500+ keys this year and 250+ since my last win, but that didn't make me luckier and win anything in the past 3½ months. Sending games or level alone does jack shit to your chances. You should subscribe to the secret 250-dollar Patreon plan for that. :3
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How exactly did you confirm that they used autojoin or bots?
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Maybe they entered and commented on several of his GAs in a second :)
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What kiseli said, plus when you post a key "Check-your-emails" and there is no response for the email for a week, you can tell that the automated account tried to activate the "key" without a human ever seeing it.
Also, an average of 1000+ entries a week is a rather telltale sign. So is being one of the members of the AutoJoin Steam Group, for that matter.
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I wasn't aware there was a group for them, that definitely makes it a bit easier. I wouldn't think too much about people joining quickly though - this site has thousands of members so the second you post something it's guaranteed at least a few people see it instantly just by pure chance. That's why I also don't believe much in the prevalent idea that a lot of bots are trolling the forums - my private giveaways never have more than a handful of entries within the first minute or so and if bots were that common they'd pounce on my links faster than any human could.
But yeah, people who don't seem to notice they've won something for a full week can certainly be a bit suspicious, although there are legitimate excuses for that as well. I guess it comes down to whether one wants to assume the best or the worst of people.
Then again in the end it doesn't really matter - there's no rule against it and I can't say it matters much to me. My game goes to someone who values it either way - either because they want to play it or because they want to idle it for cards. I am much less impressed by people who join giveaways just for the +1 in the library, and there's plenty of those who never use an autojoiner.
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Maybe it's cause you don't have the SteamGifts Premium Lifetime Subscription yet. ;)
No, but really...it's just plain luck or bad luck
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you could be here all your life and win nothing - or you could be here 3 days and win a game, or more, on each day - that is the nature of the beast that is luck and maths - just a fair warning though, there are a lot of people who hate autojoin scripts and will actively blacklist people who they think are using them; you just openly admited that you do/have ! which might not be the best thing to do :) (just a heads up in case you did not know - people blacklist for all sorts as you may know)
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presumeably if the items on your wishlist are also on alot of others wishlist then those giveaways will have loads of entries?
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It is just based on luck, the less entries there are in the GA more chances for you to win it. So sometimes you don't win anything in months and sometimes you win 5+ GA in a day. :)
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You can join some groups, such as Unlucky-7, to increase your odds of winning something. There are fewer people in group giveaways and the chances to win are automatically higher. For example, so far I won 5 games, 3 of those were guaranteed wins (meaning that the number of copies given away were equal or greater than the number of users who entered). So, I'm no more lucky than you are, basically.
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Increase your chance by selecting your giveaways. As already wrote, the less entries, the higher chance → Use groups, private, GA, train, puzzle, level up, etc. It's finally not just a click site, you can use strategy. I win more than a giveaway per week (mean = 9) but I'm higher level than you.
And if Steamgifts ask you to load a new page and click for each GA, it's probably because of the ads.
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Wow, thank you all for the head's up and the recommendations. Especially for the small courses in statistics :) Now I am sure that I don't do anything wrong and it's just me being a little "unlucky".
And sorry for being so ignorant when I felt to lazy to click two times on a giveaway entry. You all are right, that the description of the giveaway matters and should not be ignored. Now I'll think different, when entering giveaways and I'll never use AutoJoin again.
Anyways, good luck to you all!
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I've been donating 15 games to the steamgifts community over the last year and entered more than 5000 giveaways, but I didn't win anything in the last months:
https://imgur.com/coCtN0p
The website estimates, that I should have won at least 4 games in the last months:
https://imgur.com/aWGqPYb
Preferably, I enter giveaways on my wishlist, and if I have enough points, I'll move on to the recommended section and enter giveaways there until my points are spent. I am doing this once or twice a day.
Am I doing anything wrong? Why do I not win games anymore? Are there people out there with similar "problems"? Am I just unlucky or is the chance estimate over optimistic? By the way, I am level two.
I'm wondering if this is just a waste of time...
To be honest, I was using the AutoJoin extension for a while, just to try it out and because the features it had were very convenient. For example it was nice to have a 'enter giveaway' button right next to the giveaway on the main page. This saves a lot of clicking (why is steamgifts.com not implementing this? It is very time consuming and annoying to click on the giveaway and then click again to enter it). I was not using it for auto joining - i guess it was not working properly with my browser. Since I didn't win anything in the last months, i deactivated it, to check if AutoJoin is the reason.
Could this possibly the reason? Is there anyone with AutoJoin installed who wins anyway?
Any advice is welcome!
Edit:
To all:
Wow, thank you all for the head's up and the recommendations. Especially for the small courses in statistics :) Now I am sure that I don't do anything wrong and it's just me being a little "unlucky".
And sorry for being so ignorant when I felt to lazy to click two times on a giveaway entry. You all are right, that the description of the giveaway matters and should not be ignored. Now I'll think different, when entering giveaways and I'll never use AutoJoin again.
Anyways, good luck to you all!
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