To buy, or not to buy, that is the question [Level 2]

EDIT: Thanks for the advice everyone! I'm gonna buy the game on Steam and add it to my inventory. Then, if by some miracle, it's one of the Humble Monthly unlocks I'll get a refund on Steam.

The GA is still active :)

Three bits of background information:

1. I really want to get The Long Dark.
2. I subscribed to the Humble Monthly bundle for November on a whim after seeing some people predict that The Long Dark would be one of the unlocks.
3. After being disappointed at the unlock games for November, I was planning to unsubscribe before the December bundle, but I forgot to do so and have now auto renewed.

My basic question is: should I buy The Long Dark in the current Steam sale (50% off) or wait to see if it’s included in the Humble Monthly bundle for December? Obviously, by the time the bundle is announced, it won’t be on sale on Steam anymore and I don’t want to buy it at full price.

Maybe I’m just being paranoid because for the last couple of sales it was only reduced by 40%. Have they reduced it by more this time to sell more copies before it gets bundled? ಠ~ಠ

TLDR; just take the game you vultures ;)