Are you lucky?
the userscript doesn't work for me.. I've tried it a couple of times and let it run for a couple of hours every time.. but nothing happened :o
EDIT: found the problem.. it was because of the extended steamgifts userscript :x
your script said I should've won 24.7 games and I won 26 :3
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Thanks for your bug report. I've updated my user script to handle that issue - hopefully they should co-exist relatively peacefully from now on!
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just tried it again and it didn't work
but i think that problem is caused by extended steamgifts cause it only shows me the first page of my entered ga's while that script is enabled.. (so i can't see how many ga's i've entered in total)
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Could you describe what happened? Screenshots or similar would be great. Did you update to the latest version (1.3.1)?
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ohhh my bad.. didn't realize that i was still on version 0.1 :x
it does work now :3
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Heh, no worries - glad we could get it working in the end!
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I installed the userscript but it is not running. How do I get it to run?
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You should be able to go to the entered page (http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaways/entered) and click on the link entitled "Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?" (which should appear below the title Giveaways > Entered) If that link doesn't appear and you have other userscripts running on the page, please try disabling them and reloading the page to see if any conflict with my userscript.
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Thanks!
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 6.5 of them. You are 154% lucky! Plot it!
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I apparently was quite lucky "Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 13.2 of them. You are 144% lucky!"
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Cool tool! Feeling a tad lucky now ;)
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I'm guessing the userbase of the script has grown a bit, I started this discussion. There are a lot of plots there, and it seems to be working fine for everyone now. Great job!
Two things I've noticed about the plot:
1) For days when you don't enter any giveaways, you get "holes" as those days are blank instead of the blue bars simply not increasing. For me, this isn't any problem, on the other hand, I think it's a nice feature, you can see what days you haven't been active, instead of (perhaps) assuming you have entered only very low chance giveaways for those days. Still worth mentioning.
2) Real wins is a step function, while the graph in the script assumes real wins increases steadily between the wins. Not a big problem though, but if it would be possible to assign just integers for that graph, it would work the same way as the real wins do. Just a small mention, don't feel the need to spend a lot of time on it if it's complicated. I'm so very impressed with what the script already does.
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3) A good portion of 2014 is missing due to database corruption, wiping off list of all entrants except the winner in most giveaways.
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it's just wording - it may look like it means you're very unlucky, but in fact it means that just a little bit. 100% is ase, 99% Unlucky means that you are 1% less lucky than 100% user, 110% lucky means you are 10% more lucky than average, so in your case you are just 7% less lucky than average ;)
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Seems that for me it's not registering games in some months (0 expected wins like I entered nothing - shown as holes in plot)
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Already covered in my previous comment
They indicate periods when you weren't active on Steamgifts... vacation/not in front of a computer around then?
Quite good to be able to see how addicted one is :D
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nope, just checked my history of entered games - as it would be hadd to navigate holes in 2014 because there are many I focused at start of 2015 where there's also a hole. And It doesn't seem that I had any break in entering GAs between Jan and March 2015, while Plot would indicate that I had at least 1-week break.
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I'm guessing that the bars represent the ending time of the giveaway, not the time of entry, so you'll have to cross-reference that as well.
If you do a search for a specific game, it becomes evident that white = no giveaway at that time:
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Just checked... Fnord says he had a pause leading to his "hole".
Also, everyone else who was around by January 2015 seem to have a hole as well, I'm guessing that was when the site was moved from SG1.0 to SG2.0 (no winners being rolled during the time the site was down)? Two examples:
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maybe you're right here. I cleared the data and running script again (again takes shitload of time ;p) if holes appear to be the same it means it's fine and I am lucky indeed :>
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ok, rerun results are the same, I am lucky ;) (still have no idea why first version of the script told me I'm 169 games below ;p)
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I think you misunderstood my scripts output. Looking back, you were told you were expected to win 1580.5 GAs, but looking at your profile, you have won 1660 - so you were doing better than expected (unless you just won an awful lot of GAs in the past week)!
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 71.3 of them. You are 93% unlucky
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Just a quick update to say I've changed the phrasing for your percentage luckiness - I didn't make its meaning clear first time around.
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Hi.
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 33.0 of them. That is 106% of your actual won GAs - lucky you! Plot it!
i win 35 gives, so it 94% percent of what i win. And I lucky. The phrase is incorrect ;)
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Interesting. Are all of those giveaways marked as received? I have tried to exclude GAs where you haven't received the game.
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yes i marked all as received.
35/33 is 106% which is what i win to what i was expected to win
33/35 is 94% and this should be on text.
The text should be "You win 106% of expected giveaways, lucky you", or something similar
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Sorry, I understand what you mean - you're right - I've not quite fixed that wording yet.
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Text color is unreadable/almost invisible if it is used with SteamGifts v2 Dark-Blue
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var $section = $("<div style=\"padding: 0.5em 0; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000\"></div>");fixes the problem if you are using SteamGifts v2 Dark-Blue
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 58.9 of them. You've won 98% of expected GAs - unlucky!
shrug I'm very satisfied with how well the Space Cat has taken care of me; math is the devil anyway.
...Transcribed by a third party from a message in a bottle penned by Tynon_1221... by candle-light... atop a horse... from the grave
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it said i should have won 50 times and i only have 49...
sg, so unfair ;_;
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"Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 7.8 of them. You've won 51% of expected GAs - unlucky!" :(
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Woot I'm lucky!
By 0.02 wins XD
Looks like it's pretty average then I guess :)
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 201.8 of them. You've won 101% of expected GAs - lucky you!
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New version just released with minor changes to plotting and introducing caching of results to make future uses faster.
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This is so damn cool! Running it now, thanks!
Edit: Turns out I'm 144% lucky. Which got me sad because it means in the long run it'll probably even out, meaning that I'll at some point have a long streak of not winning anything :(
Yeah, I'm the 1/2 empty glass kind of guy :P
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Expected 1.2 Actual 1.0
Lol. I guess doing it when I've only won once and my account is like 7 days old is a bit useless.
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 17.2 of them but you've actually won 7. You've won 41% of expected GAs - unlucky!
Looks like i am the unluckiest person on SG :(
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Yeah, I was going to comment on my 66% of expected rate of winning. (I think it's mainly that I got unlucky on a couple GAs that had very low numbers of entrants--in the single digits.)
I'm not bent out of shape about it. After winning a few games I haven't gotten around to playing (and noting that people don't appreciate the wait) I've become very choosy about what I enter.
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8 wins in your first month is still pretty good though. You must have entered lots of giveaways to get 17 estimated wins in a month :D
It will even out over time. My longest unlucky streak was almost three months, where I won 2 games (of which one was a 1-entry giveaway), but had almost 10 wins predicted for that period.
Come back in a year, might be that you're still 10 wins behind, but if you keep on winning roughly 8 games per month, that would put you at around 100 wins when you've been here a year. Then those 10 missing wins will make much less impact on your total.
...and who knows, maybe your luck will turn around and you will be 10 games ahead in one year's time? ;)
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Interesting - that's pretty cool - had not found that page before. It doesn't quite do everything my script does (presumably for performance reasons), but still very useful.
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You haven't seen it before because it just went live today. :)
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Well, do ya?
I've noticed quite a few people complaining that they aren't winning as many GAs as they'd like. Well, I have a little stats knowledge and plenty of programming knowledge, so I thought I'd make a user script that looks over your GA entries and see how many times you'd actually expect to have won, which you can compare to your actual wins and either feel awesome or have something else to complain about!
It's a standard Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey userscript - please let me know if you have any problems using it. It will add a link to the top of your Entered GAs page (http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaways/entered) and will look back at all entered GAs when you click on the link. Don't expect results immediately - the process could take a while (mostly to avoid overloading SG).
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/kelnage/sg-lucky-punk/master/Do%20You%20Feel%20Lucky%2C%20Punk.user.js
Happy with the results? Or do you want to console yourself in your unluckiness? This thread is the best place to talk about it - thanks to super-user tso184 for creating it.
Edit: thanks for all your feedback. If you got a weird result (significantly lower or higher than you'd expect), please make sure you've got the latest version (by following the above link) and I think I have ironed out most of the issues people initially saw.
Edit (2016/03/22): new functionality! You can now see your daily expected wins on a bar plot (thanks to plot.ly for their fantastic JS plotting library). The userscript will now take a little longer to initially load (due to caching of the remote script) but once that's done it should be as fast as usual.
Edit (2016/03/26): now you can plot your actual wins against expected wins. See when you've been lucky or otherwise. Also includes a percentage "luckiness" (or unluckiness if less than 100%).
Edit (2016/03/28): fixed incompatibility with Extended Steamgifts userscript.
Edit (2016/03/29): changed phrasing of percentage (un)luckiness since I didn't make what it meant clear. Also excluding GAs between June and October 2014 due to a database corruption at that time.
Edit (2016/03/31): released version 1.5.1, caching results, so after your first time, the results will appear much quicker. Also changed behaviour of graph to show a constant line when no changes have happened (i.e. between wins or no GAs entered).
Edit (2016/04/14): thanks to the sharp eyed luizfcsilveira, I've found a bug in my script that meant all GAs giving away 1000+ copies of games were being ignored. The new version (1.5.4) fixes this. It will automatically clear your cached results when you first run it sadly, but it will also make your expected wins more correct!
Edit (2016/04/19): released version 1.6.0, which now shows future expected wins values (based on the number of entries when the script is run). Also works when searching for a specific game.
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