Are you lucky?
Holy shit thank you so much! I spent almost 2 hours trying to figure this out (my expected/actual win rate) by hand and it sucked! This makes it soo much easier!
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I was addicted to this think, loved it! But today it stopped working (on Chrome) out of nothing?
I've trouble shot what I could, tampermonkey is running, the script is running...
Anyway. Another thing is, a few days back I was in one of those giveaways that gave 5k keys. It had 15k entrants (I was lucky enough to get a key!) but I kept an eye on your script results and they didn't go up by 0.3 or more wins that day, as I expected. That one left me scratching my head...
Thanks!
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Site changed to https. Did you add to match script on that?
Edit: First time using the script myelf. I added https so "Do you feel lucky" appeared in entered. But its just calculating and not showing anything :)
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I had not!
But now I did and nothing changed. I must be missing something in the change then.
Edit: Nevermind, I hadn't changed the ones at the start because I thought the / invalidated them. But yeah, now it shows up but it gets stuck calculating. Should probably wait for a proper update then.
Dang, I had gotten addicted to this thing :P
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I've released a new version of the script that fixes this bug, thanks for the notification. Unfortunately, any old cached values will be lost (due to how the data was being cached).
On the topic of the missing expected value, anything you can send me would help. Screenshots of the GA as you see it on the entered page, the plot for the day it finished and the day before.
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Thanks! Update works 100%!
Sorry I didn't reply earlier but I was getting the screens and whatnot. Here they are.
You can see below both the gib I've won and the plot for that day. Hard to see anything from the plot, but the expected went from 13.57 to 13.73 -- which, together with all other gibs I've entered that day, doesn't sound quite right.
Thanks again!
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Ah ha - whilst I was attempting to send you some code to try and debug the issue, I think I've found it anyway.
I've just released version 1.5.4 - when running it for the first time, it will clear your cached values, due to it previously ignoring GAs you'd entered.
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Thanks! Update worked and I'm a bit less lucky now. I suppose that's a good thing? It eases the guilt XD
Anyway. The results from that day look exactly the same though. In April the 8th I gained 0.15 in expected wins even though I had a chance of 1/3 on that one giveaway. Looking around at adjacent days none of them is out of the ordinary either (i.e., neither would compensate for that 0.3 chance that doesn't show up).
Cheers!
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Looking at that GA, it looks like it finished on the 10th - so that's when your expected wins should have increased by 1/3.
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I was saying the 8th because that's when your script plots the win to me :)
But yeah, the giveaway ended "5 days ago" so it should be on the 9th? Dunno.
As plotted: From 7th to 8th I gained 0.11 in expected wins; to 9th I gained 0.16; to 10th I gained 0.22; to 11th I gained 0.14.
Even though 9th to 10th is above average it's still nowhere near 0.33...
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Yes, it's there on the 9th.
320μ, whatever that is :) I suppose 32% chance.
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Hmm, μ is suffix for micro (10^-6), which is a lot smaller than we should expect.
We have two options to debug it any further. Either you could send me the HTML for the above page (put it on http://pastebin.com/ and then send me a link) or we could edit the user script to emit debugging information - which would be easier for you?
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Perfect - I caught the issue with my parsing. It has been fixed in version 1.5.5, you'll need to clear your cache for it to be correct though (that includes the search cache results - they're separate caches).
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Awesome. But how to I clear the search cache? Didn't seem to find that one.
Edit: Welp, I cleared only the normal cache if that makes sense? But woot woot, I've gained 0.5 estimate win on that day :)
So yeah, works like a charm. Two thumbs up.
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 146.4 of them but you've actually won 108. You've won 74% of expected GAs - unlucky! Plot it!
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Your Script
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 120.5 of them but you've actually won 116. You've won 96% of expected GAs - unlucky! Plot it!
SG Stats
Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 1 less gift than estimated since you first joined.
So your scripts proves that I need to LEECH harder!!!
:D
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Interesting - it would appear our calculations of expected wins deviate somehow. Without access to the source of their calculations, I can't really see why they'd be different.
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Yeah, I remove the results from that period (won or otherwise) due to the missing data. But hotbullet8 only just joined in October 2014, so shouldn't have been affected by those issues.
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"You've won 27% of expected GAs - unlucky!"
Thanks </3
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I've added a new feature that plots the expected wins for giveaways that haven't finished. Obviously this will change as more people enter/leave those GAs, but since I'm caching a lot of data these days, it shouldn't hurt SG too much.
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Do You Feel Lucky, Punk? Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 41.8 of them but you've actually won 34. You've won 81% of expected GAs - unlucky! Plot it!
81% ain't bad.
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It hasn't been working for me for a couple of weeks now. It gets stuck in the "Calculating your odds of success now", nothing happens. I left it work for hours, nothing. Tried clearing the cache too, no result. :(
Thanks!
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im the opposite as hotbullet8 5months ago.. sg thinks i am a leech compared to this script. xD
Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 286.8 of them but you've actually won 290. You've won 101% of expected GAs - lucky you!
Overall, you've been lucky, and won 6 more gifts than estimated since you first joined.
but anyways, cool tool.. /bump
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Beep boop, it hasn't been working again for a week or two -- Same symptoms as the other time.
Just reporting, cheers. :)
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Sorry - haven't been so motivated to work on this extension since cg added similar features to the site (since my extension is by definition less efficient). But since enough people asked, I've fixed it for the new time format.
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Many thanks! And no need to apologize ofc.
I understand why you say that SG now has similar features but I really don't think it does. Your stuff is so much more powerful, complete, and thus fun to mess around with!
For example, I can search a particular game on the entered page, and your tool will show me a graph based only on that game. How cool's that? :)
Keep it up, and thanks again!
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That's an awesome feature indeed, very interesting to be able to check if you're just unlucky when it comes to a certain game or if the odds weren't really in your favour after all.
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Another bump, regarding the issue since cg changed the time format. :)
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Sorry - haven't been so motivated to work on this extension since cg added similar features to the site (since my extension is by definition less efficient). But since enough people asked, I've fixed it for the new time format.
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Just as luizfcsilveira said, the ability to check your chance to win a specific game and show a chart for it is really nice, and something that makes this script much more interesting than the built in stats on Steamgifts.
Here's how it looks if I check how my chances to have won Ori and the Blind Forest up until now :D :
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Well, do ya?
I've noticed quite a few people complaining that they aren't winning as many GAs as they'd like. Well, I have a little stats knowledge and plenty of programming knowledge, so I thought I'd make a user script that looks over your GA entries and see how many times you'd actually expect to have won, which you can compare to your actual wins and either feel awesome or have something else to complain about!
It's a standard Greasemonkey/Tampermonkey userscript - please let me know if you have any problems using it. It will add a link to the top of your Entered GAs page (http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaways/entered) and will look back at all entered GAs when you click on the link. Don't expect results immediately - the process could take a while (mostly to avoid overloading SG).
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/kelnage/sg-lucky-punk/master/Do%20You%20Feel%20Lucky%2C%20Punk.user.js
Happy with the results? Or do you want to console yourself in your unluckiness? This thread is the best place to talk about it - thanks to super-user tso184 for creating it.
Edit: thanks for all your feedback. If you got a weird result (significantly lower or higher than you'd expect), please make sure you've got the latest version (by following the above link) and I think I have ironed out most of the issues people initially saw.
Edit (2016/03/22): new functionality! You can now see your daily expected wins on a bar plot (thanks to plot.ly for their fantastic JS plotting library). The userscript will now take a little longer to initially load (due to caching of the remote script) but once that's done it should be as fast as usual.
Edit (2016/03/26): now you can plot your actual wins against expected wins. See when you've been lucky or otherwise. Also includes a percentage "luckiness" (or unluckiness if less than 100%).
Edit (2016/03/28): fixed incompatibility with Extended Steamgifts userscript.
Edit (2016/03/29): changed phrasing of percentage (un)luckiness since I didn't make what it meant clear. Also excluding GAs between June and October 2014 due to a database corruption at that time.
Edit (2016/03/31): released version 1.5.1, caching results, so after your first time, the results will appear much quicker. Also changed behaviour of graph to show a constant line when no changes have happened (i.e. between wins or no GAs entered).
Edit (2016/04/14): thanks to the sharp eyed luizfcsilveira, I've found a bug in my script that meant all GAs giving away 1000+ copies of games were being ignored. The new version (1.5.4) fixes this. It will automatically clear your cached results when you first run it sadly, but it will also make your expected wins more correct!
Edit (2016/04/19): released version 1.6.0, which now shows future expected wins values (based on the number of entries when the script is run). Also works when searching for a specific game.
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