See how all those giveaways you enter have 1000+ entries? Expect to enter 1000 before winning, because math.
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The closest point though. Sure, he could get lucky or unlucky, but given the average point is the most likely, I'll say 1000.
It worked for me, 1200 or so entries for my first win.
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I think it should be like, by the time you entered at least 1000 giveaways you will most likely have won once. If you are lucky, you will have more wins than 1, and if you are unlucky you'll have won none.
EDIT: As an example, let's say you have 1 out of 1000 chance of winning a giveaway. So the chances of you not winning are 999 in 1000, but a 1000 giveaways, the chance that you lost all of them will be roughly 37%. So the chances of winning at least once will be more than 60%. That's a lot. By 2000, that's 14%. By 5000 0,7%. And so on.
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Weird i always reaching 500 giveaways when i won. :D
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Statistics to be exact.
And since it is all based off of probability, he could expect to win after 100 entries or after 10,000 entries.
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Yes, but the 1000 mark is most likely, its around the point that many people get their first win.
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if you take a generous 500 entrered per entry, you would expect to win something after 500 bids
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You'd only expect that if you didn't understand statistics :P
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Deja-vu, didn't we have this in another thread... no replies link, can't go back!
Anyways, if all giveaways have 500 entries, statistically you'll win after 250 giveaways.
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Nope. That's simply not true.
At 250 giveaways, there's still a 60% chance of you having won nothing. That's better than the chance you'll have won something.
You shouldn't expect anything at that stage.
347 entries is where your chances of having won nothing are exceeded by your chances of having won something, but even then the odds are not good enough to EXPECT a win. There's barely better than a 50% chance of having won something at this point. After all, that's just like tossing a coin a single time and EXPECTING it to land on heads.
If you were going to put your house on getting a coin toss right (ie keeping going until the odds were sufficient that you'd EXPECT a win, and feel rooked if you didn't get one), you'd make sure your odds were a hell of a lot better than just 50:50.
Once you'd reached the number of entries where you had a 3 in 4 (or 75%) chance, you could perhaps expect to have managed a win (although bear in mind that a quarter of the people doing this exercise still won't have done, and one of them may be you!). That spot is at 693 entries. That's 693 entries in giveaways with 500 entrants.
Would you wait until the odds were 80%? Maybe. That would see you up to 804 entries. Even then, 20% of people will still be plugging away with nothing to show for their "efforts".
The answer is partly about simple probability calculations, and partly about expectation - at what point you'd consider yourself ENTITLED to a win. Statistically, however, although a win (or even multiple wins) is a possibility, you should certainly not EXPECT to have won after only 250 giveaways, if they all have 500 entrants. Well, not unless you have a luck potion to hand, anyway.
:)
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Yay, replies are back!
I don't want to discuss what percentage I would need before wagering my house; or when it's generally OK to "expect" a win (I expect to win every giveaway I enter btw) - my point was simply, that statistically if 500 people enter 500 giveaways, they'll win one game each, and that will average to winning on entry number 250 (250,5).
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<3 replies!
If a coin was tossed twice - one person winning on heads and the other tails - your argument goes that each should expect to win on the first toss and, for the competitors, the average number of winning tosses would be one.. It's not. Half of them are still waiting :)
That's as wrong a statement with these small numbers as it is with larger ones in your post
To solve things properly, you need to use a binomial distribution formula see here as in my previous post, which proved that the odds of winning are only 40% after 250 giveaway entries in 500 entrant giveaways.
Your mistake is to start from the [incorrect] premise that the odds of winning at least one game after 500 are 100%. In reality, they are only a fairly miserable 63%.
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I've recently won a 1000+ giveaway... Never expected it
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I recently passed my 1000th entry. I've won 3 times. It really does come down to luck/math.
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Karma. Must to make some giveaways before will win you.
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i think the time wasted on entering bids is worth more than what you are getting out of it...
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Most of the time I spent on entering giveaways is during office hours.
So.. I get payed for entering ;)
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I've won 8 out of 2,551.
That was surprisingly more than I remember.
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Lel, i needed 700 entries to gas with less than 500 entries until i win something. There were ppl with 1500 entries and no win.
You cannot expect to win with just 251 entries and commenting on gas won't help (ik what you were thinking)
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You win based on luck. The winner of each giveaway is selected by random so basically everyone who enters a giveaway has the same amount of chance at winning the giveaway. If your looking for a way to increase your chances try joining some groups that giveaway games only if your a member, or earn contributor status and enter contributor only giveaways.
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Well apparently, I think its fair to say you are an imposter and not MasterObvious? A true master of the obvious would know the answer to your question.
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Statitic doesn't works in this case. If you enter in every GA and you are one and the same number in every on them, then you can expect that you will win some of 1000 entries GA somewhere at 1200-1300. But nobody can enter in all GA and the number in list on entries is not the same. So you can dogge the winning number infinity number of times... or have luck every time.
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You clearly don't understand statistics then.
Skipping a number of giveaways has no influence on the sample size of the relevant set (that is, the giveaways you actually choose to enter). Even if you enter one giveaway once every year for 100 years, your chance is the same as entering 100 giveaways in 1 day (assuming they have the same average number of entries).
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Maybe... but I just only worked for company that makes casino eqipmant and I have a lot of expiriance with random generators. Lets make it's easy and gues that all GA have only 10 entries, so RNG will get number form 1 to 10. Statistic only say that every of them have equal chance and it's true, I see it many times, after 1000 rows the percent of every number is almost same. All gamble works with this. In example roulette have 37 numers, but max win multiplayer is 36, this is becouse in other case if there is 37 multiplayer you can bet one and the same number, with double you bet after 37 turns and you will win soon or latter. But this doesn't works (Red-Black with double too, becouse of green 0). I try many times (with virtual mony of course), just to see wining animation. When I bet one and the same number every time I have win in less then 40-50 turns, but when I bet on defferent numbers every time it easy takes more then 100. In our example with 10 entries it may looks like:
5 7 2 1 9 6 2 5 3 10 3 4 1 8
If you number 8 every time you will win on the end, but if you have defferent number every time or you miss ot enter this one you can dogge it.
You are right that that if you enter GA with 1000 entries you chance is 1/1000 every single time, but you miss thet if you one and the same number and enter in every row you chance becomes better with every new row that you loose. So it easy can takes 10 000 rows for 1000 GA without win.
And there is one more think if we need to be precise. If there is no protection for this case (very rare someone add one) smaller numbers have better chance... RNG get number between 0 and 2 147 483 647 and then get modul by range and add +1 if first number is 1 not 0. If we have 1000 entries this means that we have 2 147 483 647 % 1000 + 1. Numbers up to 2 147 482 999 have equal chance, but numbers from 2 147 483 000 to 2 147 483 647 give one extra chance for numbers between 1 and 648.
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If that slot machine behaves like you described (statistically significant number of samples was taken) it means that it's your luck or crappy RNG or RNG result is in some later stage distorted.
The last paragraph tells me that last possibility is the case, as this is common error made by programmers without basic knowledge of math. As such this needs no protection, mistakes and errors should be fixed not masked
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Last paragraph describes usual use of RNG in most games that doesn't have certificate for gambling. And I belive that there is no protection in this site, it's simple but heavy if you don't forced to use it.
About gambling machines (not only slots) they have GLI certificates (some of them are used in Las Vegas top casinos) and there is no problems in them. Good RNG must give equal chance to every number after many rows. This means that after every row not winning numbers from last rows have better chance for the next row. So if you one and the same number every time and you participate in every row, you chance will become better after every lost one... but in case of this site it depends only from your luck for every singe row, it doesn't becomes better after lost ones.
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I don't know what algorithm is used to pick a winner, but wouldn't be surprised if it was random.org. Even if not, I think author put enough thought when developingthesite to not make such mistake
That makes sense now, have had no idea that gambling machines are allowed to use non-independent generator. I expected that they have to use uniform distribution and as independent results as technology allows.
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The only request for gambling machines RNG is to give equal chance to every number. But you must not only give units for test, but also give all source code to certification company. Also they calculate hash and you can't sell or even update machines with new software, if it's not the same (Inspections in casinos happen all the time). Most of them uses buld-in opensource RNG - mt19937ar, some of them with few modifications, but only for interface, plus protection for distribution, there is few algorithms about that but even most opimal requires several calculations and as I know distribution protection is very rarely used outside gambling. Actualy defference with and without it is lower then statistic error and if you don't need it 100%, there is no big defference.
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I don't want to sound stupid (what I will anyway) but where can I see my number of giveaways entered here on SGv2?
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You just need to praise RNGesus more.
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Oh god. Made my day, haven't had a laugh quite a while.
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If there are 2 people in the giveaway you have a 50% chance of winning.
If there are 3 people in the giveaway you have a 33.33% chance of winning.
If there are 4 people in the giveaway you have a 25% chance of winning.
If there are 10 people in the giveaway you have a 10% chance of winning.
If there are 100 people in the giveaway you have a 1% chance of winning.
If there are 1000 people in the giveaway you have a 0.1% chance of winning.
Hope that helps.
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Well, I won my first giveaway at about 600 entries but back then the site wasn't this popular.
Try increasing your level by making giveaways and join groups for higher chances. ;)
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Diz page iz zo faik , i hait thiz paig , reportedz to the CIA
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Anyone have a Rosetta Stone to try and decipher this mess?
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Sacrifice your meatballs to the Giant Flying Spaghetti Monster, that will ensure you win every GA you enter...worked for me :D
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My first win was at ~2100 entries then i won 2 more times at arround 2800-2900 etries. Since then no luck. My total entries should be close to 5500 but its 1774 at the moment because of the stats wipe/db loss .
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Winning is a lie. Especially after the site changed over. Only the certain priviliged ones, those that either paid off or slept with the owners get to win now.
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22 out of 7491 in my case
Just be patient my friend, and do not complain about bad luck, it will not help you .
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I have entered 251 giveaways and not won a single item. Have I forgotten to do something or am I just really unlucky??
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