How can the Estimated Wins be so accurate?

yeah i hate that is not accurate for me 11 wins with 8 estimated wins.

Take a look at my profile.

Nah, not really accurate for mine~

Mine is not accurate at all. I have much less than half of my estimated wins.

You lie!

Gifts Won: 13
Estimated Wins: 24.68

It's just a coincidence. Because it's random.

No, it's not :(

I have 34 gifts won and 35.38 of estimated..

WHERE IS MAH FREE GAME!!?? (Jk)

ITT: a lot of people not understanding statistics very well...

Really? My actual wins are 6.5 times higher than my estimated wins... strange...

lol'ed hard @ all those people who think its not accurate just because they didn't won the estimated amount of games..

Random is still random this is just ESTIMATED and this is pretty accurate and just simple math.

My wins and estimated wins were the same until I reached my 16th win. I remember the horror when I was missing a game and cried for 4 hours.

I won my first giveaway at 0.6 estimated, now I'm almost at 2.2 and no 2nd win...and look at my avatar..that's how I cry about it. :P

Check my prof, its not.

18 and 13.83. NOPE.

Not that accurate: Gifts Won 22 Estimated Wins 18.64

Statistics

it's the power of math.

7 win 11.13 estimated(so i need more 4 winz!)

totslly not accurate iMO---i have an estimated rate of 6.5 and i won 4...

Look at mine!:))

Because statistics is a real thing.

It keeps track of the mean average of all the odds for each giveaway you've entered, and divides the total number of giveaways you've entered by that.

Say all the giveaways you've entered have averaged out to a 1 in 400 chance to win, then if you have 400 entries total your estimated wins would be 1.

The magic of statistical averages.

http://www.steamgifts.com/user/renan1227 :(

Gifts Won 11
Estimated Wins 17.86
hmmm