61.26%
And the function is BINOM.DIST in Excel 2010 afaik.
Comment has been collapsed.
Actually, the function tells you that the probability that there are at most 5 giveaways won out of 2139 entries (based on your profile) is 60.71%.
Comment has been collapsed.
94.66%
But I have a feeling my luck ran out at the beginning.
Comment has been collapsed.
12inch :P oh wait were not talking about that... does that come later in this discussion? (I'm really surprised and ashamed that no-one made this joke yet as i thought that is what the internet does)
Comment has been collapsed.
You assume everyone has Excel. :(
Edit 1: Tried in Google Drive, but got an error that the number of giveaways I'd entered was too large.
Edit 2: Used this online cumulative distribution calculator and got 31.725%.
Comment has been collapsed.
I thought you meant something different when you said p
Comment has been collapsed.
Tried this on my TI-84 with the binompdf function. The number of entries was 2755, the probability of winning was 9.08/2755 = about 0.0033, and the actual winnings was 7. Therefore, my probability of winning was .1151. If you are using cdf (which I believe is what most people are using) then it comes out to be about .3142. Yay, I'm boring!
Comment has been collapsed.
I'm not sure I did it correctly, but I arrived at 20.77%. Not that unlucky, yet, but I'm working hard on it.
Comment has been collapsed.
I thinks I misunderstood
still 0.1641 though...
BINOM.DIST(4,2437,14.1/2437,1)*100
Comment has been collapsed.
10 Comments - Last post 15 minutes ago by ViToos
3 Comments - Last post 20 minutes ago by wigglenose
3 Comments - Last post 48 minutes ago by NobodyNo
7 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by Chris76de
941 Comments - Last post 3 hours ago by InSpec
1,170 Comments - Last post 3 hours ago by Formidolosus
293 Comments - Last post 4 hours ago by Creative1989
10,364 Comments - Last post 3 minutes ago by Peiperissimus
1,979 Comments - Last post 9 minutes ago by yderlig
1,565 Comments - Last post 10 minutes ago by TwixClub
60 Comments - Last post 11 minutes ago by xurc
131 Comments - Last post 16 minutes ago by Alpha2749
3,949 Comments - Last post 17 minutes ago by igel2005
138 Comments - Last post 40 minutes ago by Lironezzz
Yep, I am that guy that is worried about the size of everybody's p's. ;) ;) ;)
Here is how it works. Go to your profile and find:
N=Entered Giveaways
w=Giveaway Wins
s=Estimated Wins
s/N = probability of winning EACH giveaway (assuming that all have the same number of entries)
Now go into Excel and calculate p=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) -- watch the order. That is the probability you win w or less times (well, if all your giveaways had the same number of entries, which is the best we can do with these numbers). So, the smaller the p, the unluckier you are.
So, for example, from other threads:
c00lizz (5244,107,123.52) means p=6.991% (unlucky!)
kumori (4104,2,8.67) means p=0.807%
TheFinalBing (3795,0,5.06) means p=0.632%
Kuroisama (4528,42,66.33) p=0.0866% (Unluckiest one?)
On the other side of the scale:
RainBoom (680,6,1.93) p=99.6% (Lucky bastard!)
Arpione (1552,36,21.76) p=99.83% (!!)
Comment has been collapsed.