Yep, I am that guy that is worried about the size of everybody's p's. ;) ;) ;)

Here is how it works. Go to your profile and find:
N=Entered Giveaways
w=Giveaway Wins
s=Estimated Wins
s/N = probability of winning EACH giveaway (assuming that all have the same number of entries)

Now go into Excel and calculate p=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) -- watch the order. That is the probability you win w or less times (well, if all your giveaways had the same number of entries, which is the best we can do with these numbers). So, the smaller the p, the unluckier you are.

So, for example, from other threads:
c00lizz (5244,107,123.52) means p=6.991% (unlucky!)
kumori (4104,2,8.67) means p=0.807%
TheFinalBing (3795,0,5.06) means p=0.632%
Kuroisama (4528,42,66.33) p=0.0866% (Unluckiest one?)

On the other side of the scale:
RainBoom (680,6,1.93) p=99.6% (Lucky bastard!)
Arpione (1552,36,21.76) p=99.83% (!!)

11 years ago*

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94,83% :D

11 years ago
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p=0.397049091

11 years ago
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my p is 0.25212

11 years ago
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37.12% not too bad

11 years ago
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67.85% for me.

11 years ago
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Uh, really have no idea how to do that in excel. Anyone care to help since formulas were never my strong suit?

11 years ago
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Just type into any cell the formula "=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1)" without the quotes, putting your numbers instead of w, N and s. I did it for you, you got 98.7959%, which is really really lucky.

11 years ago
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0,072338868

11 years ago
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11 years ago
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I really have no idea how to do that in Excel.
But if anyone is willing to help here are my stats:
Giveaways Entered 4,103
Gifts Won 16
Estimated Wins 18.18

11 years ago
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Done. It is 35.88%. A bit unlucky.

11 years ago
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eh, good enough for me. Thanks for the help :)

11 years ago
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p=0,695459896

11 years ago
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seriously, anybody else read it as "how big is your D?

11 years ago
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seriously, anybody else read it as "how big is your D?

11 years ago
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0.05722575, 5.7% Pretty unlucky I guess :O

11 years ago
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Closed 11 years ago by Thexder.