No, that P is the probability you win ONE SPECIFIC giveaway similar to the ones you entered... Your p is
BINOM.DIST(25,4393,24.03/4393), that is, about 63%. So, the chance that a user like you would win 25 OR LESS giveaways is 63% (in other words, the chance of winning 26 or more would be about 37%).
Vaguely: you belong to the 37% luckiest people on this site.
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Just a word of warning: The reality might be someway off when the variance of the number of entries is quite high. Here goes a small example:
N = 2,
Entries: 1, infinity (think of trillions).
Then s = 1,
and p = 1/2.
The probability to win 1 or less times is now 1 (because you will not win a giveaway with infinite (trillion) entries).
But with your calculation it is (1/2)^2 + (1/2) = 3/4
The probability to win 0 or less times is now 0 (because you will win the giveaway with 1 entry).
But with your calculation it is (1/2)^2 = 1/4.
Now for my result with this method: p = 50.23%.
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The same, i got "The formula you typed contains an error" using the given formula :/
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The probability of exactly 11 successes out of 5,979 trials is 6.3096803349951660%.
The probability of 11 or fewer successes out of 5,979 trials is 17.2769583065577130%.
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no, i'm not doin that and feeling horrible about the smaller p later.
TBH i am more then satisfied with my P IRL if u know what i mean ;)*
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I don't have Excel installed on my computer, how big/small is my "P"?
=BINOM.DIST(37,4484,31.77) (That's correct right? My maths have declined since I graduated 15 years ago... o_O )
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If I did it right, I am 12.90%. Well, 12 is my lucky number, so yay?
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Yep, I am that guy that is worried about the size of everybody's p's. ;) ;) ;)
Here is how it works. Go to your profile and find:
N=Entered Giveaways
w=Giveaway Wins
s=Estimated Wins
s/N = probability of winning EACH giveaway (assuming that all have the same number of entries)
Now go into Excel and calculate p=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) -- watch the order. That is the probability you win w or less times (well, if all your giveaways had the same number of entries, which is the best we can do with these numbers). So, the smaller the p, the unluckier you are.
So, for example, from other threads:
c00lizz (5244,107,123.52) means p=6.991% (unlucky!)
kumori (4104,2,8.67) means p=0.807%
TheFinalBing (3795,0,5.06) means p=0.632%
Kuroisama (4528,42,66.33) p=0.0866% (Unluckiest one?)
On the other side of the scale:
RainBoom (680,6,1.93) p=99.6% (Lucky bastard!)
Arpione (1552,36,21.76) p=99.83% (!!)
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