Too bad you didn't spend 19 cents. Cards are always useful for those really cheap deals. :P
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I haven't been around SG long, but I'm pretty sure many of us don't make super efficient use of our time :)
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I don't know the math but did you factor this, per giveaway %, in when you did the math for the 61% outcome you posted on the topic?
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Who told that there are just 1-6 numbers on die sides? :-P
Or if there are 1 to 6 points on the sides how do you be sure that 7-th point on 6 point side will not appear somehow (from a dirty table for example)?
Or how abount different numbering systems?
Its just human limitations and simplifications but everything is possible in the universe! Look more widely on everything. :)
P.S.: Had you studied probability theory in the university or wherever?
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What is the probability of winning the lottery if you do not have a lottery ticket ? 0
What is the probability of picking a blue ball in a sack only filled with red balls ? 0
What is the probailiy of picking the ace of spades from a deck of cards without aces ? 0
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You can be granted with a winning ticket. You even may not know it. <>0
If your hand is in blue paint - any ball you pick will be blue. <>0
What if because of absence of aces 2 are considered as aces in this deck? <>0
Ofcourse in math probability theory if there is no such event in chosen multiplicity - probability of it is 0.
But math sucks! Universe rules :)
Is Schrödinger's cat dead or alive in the box? ;)
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You are just twisting these events into different events.
I said that you do not have a lottery ticket. If you are granted a ticket without knowing it, then you do have lottery ticket and it is a different event.
I did not say the 2 are considered aces, that is a different event.
As for the ball covered in blue painting...well one could argue that it is still a red ball, only covered in blue painting.
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Your setting is simply invalid. That is not even included in probability.
Probability is a way of assigning every "event" a value between zero and one, always not equal to.
You may want to see the description yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely
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Probability tell us what-ever can happen will happen
I think you're the one misunderstanding probabilty
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I was trying the same, didn't get it and didn't buy it, opportunity lost.
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Yay, mathematical proof that winning is possible, but unlikely ;)
Oh, and if you got the game on the cheap, I'd recommend keeping it for yourself and playing it.
It's short and quite rough around the edges, but what is in there works quite well for a first-person puzzler.
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talk about dedicaton, though I admit to holding off on getting some games just to see if how long it'd take to win them.
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Why are you combining multiple giveaways? I mean, if you enter 1 million giveaways with 500 entries the probability (0.002) will always be the same because they are independent events. Please explain your experiment/logic to me as if I were a child.
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I think you're contradicting yourself, you said:
The probability is 50% and will always be.
"if you enter a lot of giveaways it becomes more and more probable that you will win one": No, you are only buying a lot of lottery tickets for different (independent) raffles. The probability will always be 1/(number of tickets sold). You're only "buying" your ticket, your chance to win, not increasing the probability of winning.
Don't worry, a lot of people thinks this way, that's why lottery and gambling are great businesses.
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Monty Hall problem is conditioned by the host's choice, so the probability changes when he opens one of the doors because he knows where the prize is. It has nothing to do with an innocent coin toss.
I'm not sure if Bernoulli trial is aplicable on Steamgifts giveaways, maybe some mathematician could help us, but I'm almost sure your numbers are wrong, I mean THESE numbers:
"I got that the probability was 0,383538... circa 38,35% that I don't win any of the giveaways. Meaning that there was chance of 61,65% to win a copy of polarity."
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Ya I just took a quick glance and your math seems off. I'll double check when I get home and have some sleep in me but it should probably be something to the effect of: x1/y1 () x2/y2 () .... xn/yn where x is the number of entries you have per giveaway (in this case x is equal to one for all cases) and y is the number of entries total on a particular giveaway.
At the end of the day, you are looking at gamblers fallacy: while the unlikelyhood of you not winning increases per giveaway lost, each event act independently of each other and thus the outcome of one has no baring on any subsequent giveaway.
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Excuse format and possible errors; at work on mobile and it's 4:30am here -.-. In lieu of mutiple sign I used empty closed braces.
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