all 30 gibs sent (one has a private profile, so i'm waiting)
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Thank you lovelies! I won a few gibs thanks to this!
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I did the math and got the following result. I entered 1129 giveaways during this event with the average number of entries equal 195. So, my average probability to win is 1/195=0.00513. Multiplying this probability by the number of giveaways I entered we get 0.00513*1129=5.79, which is the estimated number of games I should have won. So, yes, 9 wins is really awesome :) I took the mean as average number of entries, which is of course a bit naïve approach, but still it is better than nothing I guess :)
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not sure you can do that.
cause the GA are not dependent...
but my statistics are vague - long ago
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Well, exactly because GAs are not dependent events, we can apply this simple model to calculate the probability. Looking at one sample (i.e. one user) it may appear vague, but I think if we randomly take a couple of hundreds users we will see a well shaped Gaussian bell curve. Probably, I will check it some day :)
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I meant that you cannot multiple... Cause each GA is on it's own
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Ok, I just did the math in a better way. I calculated the sum of probabilities for each giveaway I entered and divided it by the total amount of my entries and got 0.00711, which is my real average probability of a win. Again, multiplying it by the total amount of my entries we get 8.03. So, 1 extra win for me and I am still on the right side of Gaussian distribution, splendid!
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5/1800 or so ^_^
not bad considering the odds, though the lack of points was horrible :D
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I enter only few GA (Games that i like) and win nothing! :P
Thanks anyway and congrats for a great event! :)
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I won 3 games including Banished (which was on my wishlist for quite a while). Many thanks for this great train event!
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I entered about 500 giveaways and won nothing... Well, I win enough on this site, so don't mind sharing with others :)
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I entered about 250 GAs and won 2 and both were wishlisted so I can't complain.
All I have to do is gibs now.
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0/~142 XD
Thanks for all the hard works, nice community event ^^
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Well, the truth is I entered countless GAs here and did win 2 small indies after all, which was a nice surprise for a change. :)
In comparison, in all the other major events that I joined in the last month (full labyrinth, pyramid to the top, lottery and some others), I won none. :P And some of these required enormous amounts of time to complete. :(
I guess the RNG is so crazy and unpredictable that you can never predict anything. I got super lucky yesterday for example on winning a public GA out of 1750 entries (deadlight) so yeah, I think my luck has been exhausted for now due to that one. :O
Thanks for this great event and the countless GAs in it ! xD
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Best event of this year so far, i won 6 GA. Now time to giveback :3
Thank you for event organizer and all the contributor, i love you all :D
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Some of the most active groups on Steamgifts joined me in my new year's resolution to dump excess baggage, namely to dump all the excess bundle game keys we've accumulated over time! So that we can welcome 2016 with a little spring cleaning of... you guessed it, a train of exactly 2016 giveaways!
The first 2000 games are bundle games, the last 16 games are non-bundle games, protected from dumb bots by a simple puzzle that requires using 8 tokens that can be found throughout the train to form an ITH URL.
Without further ado, here is the beginning of the 2k16 Bundle Dump Express! And for those who'd like to take a break, there are express entries at the beginning of each of the groups' segments.
GA level requirements start at level 1+ and slowly increase within each group's segment, so that you know when you can stop paying attention...
No BLACKLIST drama please. There's a simple workaround: logout of Steamgifts (or use a browser where you're not logged on), then you can see all the train connections.
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