...you have a lot of entries then!
I have around 6000 entries, took me about 2 minutes. You have almost 30 000, so it takes a while for the script to go through all of your entries. Be sure to save a screenshot for reference so you don't have to wait again.
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It's my retirement plan! :D:
But in all honesty - I like collecting popculture-related media in general ;) Not just games ;) For example - I have over 2000 DVDs/BRs, few hundred books (and few hundred ebooks as well), a lot of mangas etc ;) It's not the case that if I for example on DVD sale will buy 10-20 cheap movies I will want to watch them right away, but I do like having a choice, the bigger the better ;) And same with games, books, basically everything. I'm a very moody person and if I'm not in mood for XYZ I cannot realy force myself into it. I would hate a situation if I would have just 1,2,3 games currently avaiable to play - because I may not want to play any of them atm. One day I will be in mood for some zombie survival, other day to farm my crops in Stardew Valley (lately mostly having these days ;p), other day to read some straightforward high fantasy saga, other day in mood for some very hard sci-fi, one day will want to watch anime, other day will be in mood for GodFather marathon, other day some independent movies and so on and on ;)
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Probably even more unlucky than that. Don't forget that database corruption that wiped out a couple thousand entries :P
My graph is basically missing anything from May 2014 to Oct 2014
Edit: I see you have a gap in Jan 2015 too. I wonder if that was part of the corruption.
Edit Edit: Oh nvm, that was during the sg to sgv2 transition
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Should have won 4.9, have won 2!
I am 41% unlucky!
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Hmmm it says I'm 80% unlucky. I wonder though which is more unlucky? A 20 percent unlucky or a 80 percent unlucky? This confuses me.. If it said 100% would it mean I am normal?
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This site is a scam. Why can't I win every day? :'( :P
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I was away from SG for a while. When I first started using SG it was mainly for giveaways from people on a forum I used to frequent, and when I stopped visiting that forum as much, I did not visit SG much either for a while, so it probably does not know how to handle perioids of 0 entries.
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Yep, I was a good boy at Christmas and the Karma treated me well after that! :P
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That's awesome. Did you finish them all too? You should join BLAEO and be an inspiration for everyone :)
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Still impressive. I've played roughly 45% of my wins, and finished 25% (I try to not start playing too many games, and concentrate on finishing the ones I've started). Still recommending BLAEO. The new BLAEO site is quite cool, you can sort everything, and it keeps track of your Steamgifts wins.
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That's a okay good play on my name, far from the best I've seen. I'll give you a little extra fro quick thinking though. I grade it at B.
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Puns from me will probably never be among the best people have seen... doing quick, medium-grade ones are probably my thing. If I would sit down with a pen and paper and try to plan and write down my best puns, people would only find them tearable.
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At least I am on par with the 1 win / 1000 entries. :P
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Yeah, but that's assuming everyone enters giveaways with 1000 entries on average. You have a bit above 2000 entries, so I'm guessing you're entering some giveaways with good chances to win too.
If 1000 users would have entered a bit above 2000 giveaways each, with the same chance to win as the ones you have entered (the exact same chance for each and every giveaway of the 2000+ as every giveaway you have entered), their average wins would be pretty close to 7. Then there would be some with 10+ wins, probably a few with 15+ wins, maybe someone with 20+ wins, and then you with your 2 wins... perhaps someone really unlucky with 0 wins :D
The RNG works in mysterious ways.
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Something is wrong there. Orange line should have continued flat. Instead it disappears.
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Yes, I've actually been feeling too lucky for a while. 8,159 entries isn't a round number, but it's as good as any to stop.
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This is so cool. kelnage has made a script that lets you find out everything about your luck at Steamgifts. The latest version of the script gives you a graph that shows your expected wins and your actual wins.
Some of you might wonder - what are expected wins? That's simply one divided by number of entrants in a giveaway you have entered, and adding up that number for each giveaway you ever have entered. As an example:
You enter a giveaway with 9 other users, 10 entrants in total. Your expected win is 0.1. After entering 10 giveaways with 10 entries, you would expect to have won 10x0.1=1 giveaway. If the giveaway is for multiple copies, you are expected to win more. A 5 copy giveaway with 10 entrants gives you 0.5 expected wins, so you only need to enter two of those to get the number of expected wins to 1.0.
Of course, everything is decided by the RNG, and it's totally possible to have 20 expected wins, but 0 real wins. There we have being unlucky. At the same time, there will be people who win more than their expected wins (those lucky bastards ;D).
People often say that about 1000 entries are required before winning something. That's maybe a good average for the new level 0 user who enters a lot of public level 0, 1000-entry giveaways, but some people get in on puzzles, forum giveaways, and smaller groups, and might expect to win sooner.
With the plot generated by the script, you can easily track your luck.
Yellow line above the blue bars = you are lucky, you have a higher amount of wins than expected. The higher the yellow line is above the blue bars, the more lucky you are (higher number of games won than expected)
Yellow line below the blue bars = you are unlucky. Less number of won games than expected.
Using me as an example (see my plot attached at the end of this post):
I started out about a year ago, and won something my first week, quite a lucky win, since I wasn't expected to win anything that soon.
More entries followed, and soon my expected wins caught up to my real wins. I was slightly unlucky until the end of May, when I started winning more than expected. I had a really good run until the end of July, when the wins almost stopped, but the expected wins kept growing quickly (I was entering a lot of high chance giveaways, but with no wins).
In October I started winning again, but I was still behind a bit on the expected wins. I started catching up with some very good luck near the end of the year, and everything changed at New Year's when I was in the Simultaneous Giveaway event, and "got even", since it ended with me having the same amount of wins as expected.
Then I had a small period of extra luck at the start of the year, but right now my expected wins are higher than my real wins again.
So, following this, I'm guessing everyone will get how it works. Most of us will probably have some periods where we are lucky, some when we are unlucky. There will be those who are lucky/unlucky all the time. That's just the RNG at work. Theoretically, everything will even out over time, so if you're unlucky - just keep entering the giveaways (hopefully only for the games you actually will play) and sooner or later you might start winning big ;)
I hope this was interesting, feel free to share screenshots of your expected win plots! Tip: You can click "Save and edit plot in cloud" (second link from the left, disk icon, on the original plot) to get a larger plot.
Link to the script
Edit: I forgot to mention that it's also possible to see how likely it is that you would have won a certain game. Go to giveaways/entered and do a search. The script still comes up with the specific game search result, let it run (a lot faster, since the entries for a single game is faster to scan than entries for all games) and you'll see the results.
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