Do You Feel Lucky, Punk? Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 26.4 of them. You've won 114% of expected GAs - lucky you! Plot it!
That's kinda good i guess. :)
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Should have won 39 by now, only won 31.
80% - UNLUCKY!
Prior to the holiday I was doing a little better than expected, then my rate of wins for the GAs I was entering went on a serious hiatus and hasn't recovered yet.
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It's like the RNG suddenly decided that you shouldn't win so much more. For every lucky user there has to be an unlucky one. Hope your luck turns around!
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I'm confused.
"Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 347.6 of them. You've won 105% of expected GAs - lucky you!"
But I've won 416. Doesn't being 105% lucky based on an expected 347.6 mean I should have won around 365 (rounded up). Shouldn't it be telling me 120%? Unless my math is off or I'm thinking about this the wrong way. That's entirely possible too...
Or is this happening because of that big gap which I'm assuming is where the database corruption ate my entries?
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The script got an update last night. There is a problem in the database, from May 2014 till mid October 2014 there are missing a lot of entries. Basically the only entries in the database for that time span are those of your wins.
Now the script ignores all giveaways from that time span. Therefore you have this discrepancy between the calculation of the script and your actual wins.
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Probably hard to get a good way of presenting the data for users who were active during the 2014 Steamgifts database error. Maybe it's just the wording, kelnage rewrote the script to exclude the database error period to get how many wins you are expected to have outside of that period, and apparently you won 365 giveaways during that time (with 347.6 expected wins), so the difference of 51 won giveaways (416-365) would be wins in the period ignored by the script.
The problem is (to my knowledge) that only won giveaways from the period affected by the database error are saved in your entered giveaway history, so it looks like you're very lucky if those giveaways are included.
I don't know if that was any clearer for you. Too bad about the database error, takes a bit of the fun out for you who were active then.
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You've won 78% of expected GAs - unlucky!
I knew it!
Thank you for this great script kelnage :)
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No idea how to work with this but I know that my ratio is 200% against me. And chances of wining a specific GA are always 169% against.
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Based on the finished GAs you have entered, you would expect to have won approximately 49.1 of them. You've won 124% of expected GAs - lucky you!
I always knew I was lucky :P
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I have a streak of losing games with about 20 entries in them, so I always thought I was unlucky.
I'm at 91% though, guess I'm not as unlucky as I thought. :)
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Just released a new version of my script. It removes the "gaps" when you weren't active on SG (or the database was corrupted) and also displays wins as what mathematicians would call a "step function" rather than a continuous line - i.e. the line only goes up on the day you actually win something. I've also added caching of results, so future runs of my script won't cause it to request all your wins (unless you clear the cache, of course).
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Very pretty! Good job. I updated the plots in my original post. Now it's also easier to estimate the time passed between each win.
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Sad... you would expect to have won approximately 156.4 of them but you've actually won 139. You've won 89% of expected GAs - unlucky! ;)
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This is so cool. kelnage has made a script that lets you find out everything about your luck at Steamgifts. The latest version of the script gives you a graph that shows your expected wins and your actual wins.
Some of you might wonder - what are expected wins? That's simply one divided by number of entrants in a giveaway you have entered, and adding up that number for each giveaway you ever have entered. As an example:
You enter a giveaway with 9 other users, 10 entrants in total. Your expected win is 0.1. After entering 10 giveaways with 10 entries, you would expect to have won 10x0.1=1 giveaway. If the giveaway is for multiple copies, you are expected to win more. A 5 copy giveaway with 10 entrants gives you 0.5 expected wins, so you only need to enter two of those to get the number of expected wins to 1.0.
Of course, everything is decided by the RNG, and it's totally possible to have 20 expected wins, but 0 real wins. There we have being unlucky. At the same time, there will be people who win more than their expected wins (those lucky bastards ;D).
People often say that about 1000 entries are required before winning something. That's maybe a good average for the new level 0 user who enters a lot of public level 0, 1000-entry giveaways, but some people get in on puzzles, forum giveaways, and smaller groups, and might expect to win sooner.
With the plot generated by the script, you can easily track your luck.
Yellow line above the blue bars = you are lucky, you have a higher amount of wins than expected. The higher the yellow line is above the blue bars, the more lucky you are (higher number of games won than expected)
Yellow line below the blue bars = you are unlucky. Less number of won games than expected.
Using me as an example (see my plot attached at the end of this post):
I started out about a year ago, and won something my first week, quite a lucky win, since I wasn't expected to win anything that soon.
More entries followed, and soon my expected wins caught up to my real wins. I was slightly unlucky until the end of May, when I started winning more than expected. I had a really good run until the end of July, when the wins almost stopped, but the expected wins kept growing quickly (I was entering a lot of high chance giveaways, but with no wins).
In October I started winning again, but I was still behind a bit on the expected wins. I started catching up with some very good luck near the end of the year, and everything changed at New Year's when I was in the Simultaneous Giveaway event, and "got even", since it ended with me having the same amount of wins as expected.
Then I had a small period of extra luck at the start of the year, but right now my expected wins are higher than my real wins again.
So, following this, I'm guessing everyone will get how it works. Most of us will probably have some periods where we are lucky, some when we are unlucky. There will be those who are lucky/unlucky all the time. That's just the RNG at work. Theoretically, everything will even out over time, so if you're unlucky - just keep entering the giveaways (hopefully only for the games you actually will play) and sooner or later you might start winning big ;)
I hope this was interesting, feel free to share screenshots of your expected win plots! Tip: You can click "Save and edit plot in cloud" (second link from the left, disk icon, on the original plot) to get a larger plot.
Link to the script
Edit: I forgot to mention that it's also possible to see how likely it is that you would have won a certain game. Go to giveaways/entered and do a search. The script still comes up with the specific game search result, let it run (a lot faster, since the entries for a single game is faster to scan than entries for all games) and you'll see the results.
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