Won with 123 Credits and with 15 Rounds Entered :>
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!!! :D my side.. still stocking points. 210 actually
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oh man.... and when i see ppl winning with 7 pts or under 30 pts... or fresh accounts made 1 hour ago....
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Yea its supra annoying if u can see guys with few points how getting game.. But what can i do... I got nothing, then i can wait another 3 months if agin any good GA start agin :)
Happy keik day btw!
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Oh thanks, i just figured out its my SG birthday... didn't know what the cake meant )
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i won with about 20 rounds entered, started with a fresh account(participated in the giveaway before life is feudal a couple of times), finished after winning it, i have 30 points exactly remaining.
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Would love this game. Fingers crossed.
Cheers for letting us know about it!
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Got myself a copy finally. :)
Thanks for the heads up on this one.
For those interested, won with 54 credits.
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trying since yesterday noon.. and then i see those guys winning just to improve their ratio on steamtgifts :D..
on my way to the 86th point atm. fingers crossed, for me and of course for you guys aswell :)!
PS: Well, at least that gives me some extra chances on SG. I din't want to sound ungrateful (does that word actually exist :D? nvm..).
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People winning with 8 credits and I'm in more than 15 rounds with more than 100 credits and nothing...
Why luck hates me? ; __ ;
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218 credits buddy .. i'm not gonna sleep until i get the fuckin' key , already 30+ hours awake.. My life is feudal -.-
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Wow also too annoyed mate from entering :D no sleep bcs game.. Nooo :) one more round and bed waiting xD ... If u want game u must create new acc and stock 8P.. Then u can get game.
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you have about 3.23% of chance to win each round
I guess the chance of not winning this giveaway even if you enter all rounds from now on is about 60%
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Will the people who are giving this away keep their 40 CV? Or will admin delete all of the giveaways?
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this might be the only game I won't win with 100+ credits from orlygift even after joining almost all rounds :/
and it seems to be getting worse, the "number of participants" and "average user credits" is increasing each round. meaning noone is giving up and more people are joining every time
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from some of my previous GAs won I can reccomend you (if you can) staying up till really late night - when both US and EU people are asleep. Entries at 4-5 AM EU time usually gets way less entries than evening and mid-day ;) But then again - cannot be sure as it's highest profile GA so far so more people may try to stay up late to grab it ;)
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try again and again ... and i see so much GA here ... i'm mad ...
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I don't even wanna think about people using alt accounts for this...
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Pretty sure yeah people are using alt accounts... Actually after your comment I checked a few profiles from participants list and let me share some weirdos without giving profile links ofc :D
one of the guys level 0 account, 5 free games, 10 hours on Dota2, no friends
another one:
Last Online 18 days ago, level 0 accounts, 14 free or garbage games, Never played anything, has no friends, Member of a few giveaway groups (most likely he uses this for gleam.io giveaway tasks as well)
another guy, level 2 account, has 14 free games like the ones from last SEGA promo, never played anything, has no friends, only member of several giveaway groups, entered 234 rounds and won 8 games on orly before never activated anything on steam...
well found more, reporting them as alt accounts but most likely nothing will happen :D
Also they won games on orlygifts before but never activated them on their steam accounts...
PS: lol so many alts like at least 2 in every last 24 participant list, will stop checking it is kinda sad...
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O...M...G! I won, and I only had 45 points when the average was 72! How the hell did that happen!
First time I ever won anything there where I didn't get a boost from a bonus pack of points that came with a bundle.
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yay i won a copy. had 70 points :O
never knew about this site. thanks :)
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And now I see people trading the key for a bunch of CSGO keys or something bigger... I'm really pissed off right now. Too unffair.
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Yeah, I have been trying every hour and I am up to 101 credits and can't win, lol.
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I'm just mad because of the inability to report those, who regift/trade the keys although the site's rules state that those would be banned (on orlygifts) for doing so. :(
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I think the same... :(
They obtain that game for free and don't even want it in the first time. But on top of that, they don't even gift it, they just try to obtain a lot more from people who really want the game. That has to be punishable.
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Well, orlygift can easily prevent that kind of abuse and alts by doing a few things:
- checking if you already have the game, if you have it already you shouldn't be able to enter the giveaway
- checking if you activated your previous wins before you can enter a new giveaway
- only letting people with level 15+ steam accounts join giveaways
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Why in the world lvl 15? Where did you come up with that number? Some people prefer not to waste cards on leveling and rather sell them to buy new games. Why not just make sure you're lvl 1, meaning some money was actually spent on that account. I mean, if it's good enough for Steam...
I'm a bit tired and my head hurts so in case this sounds at all confrontational please know that's not my intention. I'm just really curious did you just throw lvl 15 out there without any specific reason or is there a reason behind that specific level?
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I was going to say level 20, but 15 looked fair while not being too harsh.. Even with free xp coming from owned games, community badge, years served, free holiday events etc a nonbot person would have gained some levels. If you put the limit too low like level 5, there will be point, alt accounts can make there without much trouble as well..
That limited steam account rule only applies to new accounts as far as I know. So old account alts can be still unlimited without spending anything. That's why putting a limit on level 1 doesn't mean much.
Pretty sure someone can get to level 15 by spending about 2-3$ on cards, having a few games and getting community badges, by actually using his/her account,
1-10 each level requires 100 xp
10-20 200 xp
so to reach level 15 someone needs 2k xp, Community leader badge alone gives 500 xp...
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I don't think level it's necesary, just need a game buyed on steam. (Not a bundle game or a key)
If I has to say a level, I probably say 7. Because you can make level 5 just with community badge, and two levels are like one or two games with cards, who are only a couple of cents o a bundle to make.
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Well as I said account limit does not apply to old accounts and I don't think there is any way to check if someone spent x amount on his steam account for 3rd party sites like orly. So easiest way is to limit entries to some reasonable account level.
Why 7? So that alt accounts can make it to that level easily too? We are trying to filter out alts here remember :D
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your idea is stupid - it would still reqyure people to spend actual money on badge crafting. I'll give you simple example - my fiancee, Steam account 3 years old, 220 games on account - sure, most bundles, freebies and leftovers I gave to her but still quite a few full priced game purchases - she is level 6. Why? Because she like many other users is not intrested in social aspect of Steam, with commyunity metagame, she just uses it as a gaming platform. And your idea would exclude many users like her from participation. If account with over 200 games would not be able to join how many other newbies you'd basically kick out straight away?
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220 games.. so your fiancee gets 464 xp from her games list alone and 150 xp from years of service.
anyone who actually cares enough to join those giveaways will craft those free badges like community leader then...
My idea is not stupid, 15 is not a fixed number, it is just something I made up just now, can be a lower level. Do you have a better idea to filter out alt accounts?
When I checked out last 25 participants list last night, it was a bit annoying to see at least 2 obvious alts every time.
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but why do you want to force people to craft badges? Badges have nothing to do with gaming. Why would she invest her money into something she's not intrested with and which is not related to gaming at all?
You just proposed an idea that fits you, because you like levelling up and crafting badges. The same way someone who doesn't craft badges but play CS:GO will say that requirement should be to own a Skins woirth at least 20$ for example, because he will prefer to spend his money on Skins rather than badges and it's his choice. Someone else will tell - hey, I don't have any badges, but I invested in all these steam emoticons, so requirement should be owning at least 50 emotes, c'mon these are cheap! Game collector will say - with the amount of free games available 5-game limit is stupid, it should be at least 250 games - look at me, I have thousands of games, it's easy to get just a few hundreds and so on and on.
No - I don't have better idea than yours, but it doesn't make your idea of forcing people to spend gaming-money on non-gaming stuff like badges to be good idea neither ;p
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Achievements, play time.. All of them can be done with bots or cheats so gaming related filtering is useless.
You could also say not everyone has social media accounts.. I am not sure why I am even trying to explain myself here anymore. If someone cares enough to click join every hour to win a game there getting a few levels on steam to prove he/she is not a bot or alt account should not be a problem (Getting community leader badge is much easier than joining 8 rounds on orly...)
With the amount of free games anyone can get, game limit itself is a bit meaningless. I couldn't find anything better than using steam level to filter out alts.
Anyway if you are indeed related to that site and thinking about making changes to their system I can discuss a bit more but otherwise it is like 2 random guys talking to each other without any hope of progress.
If someone from orly is reading this, I suggest them to do something about alt accounts. My idea is to put a steam level limit, checking if the user activated previous wins and if he already has the game but it can be anything else that they can check and legit accounts can do but alts can't.
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The fact that something can be cheated is again no argument for forcing people to spend money on non-gaming content ;) You just got fixed on this idea as you do so yourself so you think it would be ok for everyone else ;)
The difference between click/social account etc is that click or setting up FB/twitter does not cost you money. And Community Leader won't get you 15+ lvl, you will still need to invest money.
And no - I am not related to orly in any form ;)
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It's actually ok to regift since it's non-profitable for the person doing it. What is and should be punishable is if someone resells it or trades it with something else. I think there's even a rule in their FAQ for such behaviour. If someone reports them, they'd probably get banned from the site.
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last try ...
so ... just hope a future bundle with good price and good other games...
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cg to win... now :D
i spend over 30 hours to entering and 220 points, thanks for wasted time orly, started with 181, now 220 and still boring :D
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There are about 3000 x 62 -=186000 credits entered each round, with just 30 games to win.
With 300 credits you still just have a very tiny chance of winning
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Yeah, but you don't have 300 points. Average chance each round is about 0.001
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for your cahnce to be 0.001 aka 0.1% you would have to be on 6 credits aka entered only 6 rounds max and just registered, performed no bonus activity etc - then it's pretty obvious your chances will be lower than of people who were dedicated towards GA. You say average chance is 0.1%? Wrong - average entry atm has 62 Entries so chance is 1% - 10 times bigger than what you said :> And in such GAs you cannot look only at each round separatelly as there are many rounds - you have to look at combined probabilities. And even with 1% chance to win combined pmaximum probability (so assuming theorethically someone would enter each and every round in each having 1% chance, so his odds wouldn't rise because on avg credit for all participants raised the same) it is 40% chance to win. Pretty much bigger compared to 1% or 0.1% you talk about ;p
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186000/30=6200
6200/300=20.(6)
so in 1 round he has 1:20.(6)=4,84% to win, lets make it 5% to win and 95% to lose.
But if he enter 2 GAs he already has 9,75% chance to win, 6 entered rounds mean already 26,5% chance to win, 11 rounds is 43% chance to win and so on - these are surelly not guaranteed, but I wouldn't call them very tiny chances ;p
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I suck at maths but wouldnt be the chances each round be 5%?
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nope, because you are not entering just one round but X rounds so we calculate the probability of you winning one of X rounds where X is the number of rounds you entered :>
If you suck at math I will try to make it simple :>
We already calculated that our hypothethical chance to win is 5% and to lose is 95%. now if we enter 2 rounds it means we already lost round 1 so we must be doing our calculations on chance to lose and remaining part is chance to win (If chance to lose is 0.9 than chance to win is 01 or 90% vs 10%).
Our chance to lose in a single round is 95%
Chance we lose 1st round then 2nd round will be then 95%*95% or (0.95)^2=0,9025, 90,25% meaning chance that we win One of theso GAs is 9.75%
Chance that we lose all 3 rounds we enter will be (0.95)^3=0,857375 and our chance to win one of those 3 rounds will be 14,2625%
So going on with 5 entered rounds you have 22,62% that you win
With 10 it's ~40%
And if you enter 50 rounds even if your chance to win each of them is just 5% you have 92,30% chance that you will win ;p
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it is right but you gotta keep in ming that even if you'd have 80% chance to win, no matter how many times you enter it will never be 100% ;) Just the chance that you lose will be extremelly small, but still possible ;p
And these calculations were for person with 300 points not 60 ;p And were assuming person entered all 50 rounds for last one, which you surely did not, because of work/school/sleep ;p
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ooooh yeah.. that brings back memories from school.
Thanks!
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no prob, math and statistics are my little secret fetish :D:
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Ha. Mine is beer so if you at some point need help with that just let me know ;)
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yeah, I remember in one of your GAs you asked us about of fav beer ;p I think I posted Herbal Senojo Vilniaus and Ambers Koźlak :>
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Yes. They are in my wishlist on untappd but chances are about 0% I can acquire one of those around here.
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well if you calculate like this someone with 6200 credits wins 100% but this is not true. Still have to go from the losing chance.
Chance of winning a round with 6200 credts is about 63.8%
Also to get a proper result we should actually subtract each winners credit for each copy.won. I was thinking about writing a program to calculate the winning chance but then gave up :D
You can find a close estimation tho this way.
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Someone with 1 credit has the same chance like someone with 100 but winning the same game costs 50 credits and the second guy 49 credits more because that is what will be removed after winning a game and there is no negative credit amount. 1 =/= 49, do credits make any sense at all? Why even having them?
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someone with 100 credits has 100x as much chance to win as someone with 1 credit.
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That would mean that someone with 1 credit would never win anything if everyone else has at least 2 credits in the round, which isn't the case.
Also there doesn't seem to be any math involved in that whatsoever, so the 100x as much is just speculation.
https://www.orlygift.com/faq_user
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Apparently, you didn't read down far enough on that same page. ;)
Credits
What are Credits?
With Credits your chance to win increase.
No, it would mean everyone else has twice the chance of winning as the person with 1 credit.
That would mean that someone with 1 credit would never win anything if everyone else has at least 2 credits in the round
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Indeed i did read that but they put the math into the giveaway page instead. :D
Ok, since every credit has an influx apparently on the chance, it may be justified to take 50 credits for the win and not having a negative amount of credits because the chance is much lower having only 1 credit, even if won with just 1 and getting back to 0.
That was intense, haha.
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+1 i saw it too :D only full price for it? wuwuwuuw so good price, much wow, such trade :)
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And he is bumping his thread every 15 minutes. Violating steamgift TOS while violating orlygift's TOS :D
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Just let him ;)
He wont find a buyer thats for sure, so its just a waste of time
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second that, there are thousands of new threads like these on sg each month which gets buried quickly, tried to teach him a few things but seems like he`s a big boy and he can handle himself
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Oh well... btw guys i just won with 3 hours left, 104 points, after 36 rounds )
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3 days.... for 3 days i keep trying and i only see guys that have account registered for 2-12 hours that won.... one of them hasn't even connected to their steam account for more than 200 days... srsly it gets boring trying from hour to hour will probably give up on ever trying on this site anything
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97 credits, 37 rounds. this is really annoying. won't visit that site again ^^. It's just way too much effort, really not worth it.
I mean LiF is like 10 bucks on g2a. What the heck am I doing here? o.O
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it's all for the thrill and the heartaches.........
when I see people here winning the game up to three times with different accounts and create GA's for them at sg then I get ebola
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fortune and the orlygift-god smiled at me... :] thanks!
(I really didn't believe in winning anymore) but it seems like they got some more keys to give away. gl if you haven't won yet :)
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Just don't put much effort into it and you will be happy when you win and not disappointed when you don't ^^
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Oh wow, I got one :D
Won with 51 Credits, I probably entered about 10 rounds or so (how can I check the excact number?)
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30 keys per 1 hour / total 1500 keys
Join the lottery at:
Link
Some social media actions are required.
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