My karma is blown all ways to hell at the moment.
Luckily my silly event starts in less than 2 days :D
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Congrats on your win and much appreciated for this WL GA :D
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hope you didnt have too much fallout from the depleted karma :)
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That's quite normal under level 5 with public GAs (or group ones where the group itself is large). Many people get their first win around 1000-1500 entries.
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But most of the giveaways I've entered have from 500-600 entries, so by random chance I should have won one or maybe two. :( i cri eritim
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Shorter answer: not really, that amount only means you likely should win under a few thousand entries.
I know this will sound like, but in reality, no, you shouldn't have still. People assume that because you have a 1:X chance of something, you'll definitely win after X amounts, but in reality "luck" is not evenly spread. If you want to go with pure mathematics, you could go for thousands to millions of entries with 5-600 people in the raffles before your name comes up, depending on the algorithm the site uses.
5-600 entries is quite normal for most bundle public GAs (based only the few hundred I made and few thousand I entered), so that 1000-1500 as empiric value is more or less accurate.
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No offense, but I'm an expert in mathematics and statistical modeling. :)
I understand that entering 500 independent giveaways without a "removal effect" and 1/500 chance each time does not guarantee me a win. It does, however, make it favorable for me to win and gives me a much better than 50-50 shot to win.
Due to random chance and standard deviations of random occurrences I could enter 1,000,000 times and not win - but it would be incredibly unlikely to happen. ;)
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Well, then you know that, simply put, RNG can be a bitch.
Still, this site is not as bad as Steam itself. I almost wanted to post the spread of the 70+ sale cards that dropped for me. One would think they would at least somewhat be around some statistical average, considering that in theory there is an equal chance for each of them to appear, but noooooo…
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While probably untrue, I'm of the opinion that Steam slightly skews the odds on the cards to favor one or two of them appearing less often. This takes a bit of the elasticity out of the market for them and drives up prices a bit on the "key" card(s). Since there are so many people that go after the full sets, it could lead to an artificially inflated demand and a higher take for Steam.
Or I could just be making stuff up.
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So, I have been quite lucky in the last weeks and won a huge number of games on Steamgifts, as well as received a few more as gifts. Since I've been so blessed, I believe it's only natural that I give back a little bit to keep my karma up.
Funds are low at the moment, but I still managed to scrounge up some loose change for this little baby.
I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.
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