TF2 Keys. What's the profit?

the profit is (it was) in idling account of tf2.

Since TF2 was launched, some years ago, much people bought keys in the past. Now there are a lot of keys working on trades, so key value now is a bit low than real price because there are a lot. Is simple.

Keys can be used on crates in game, they're low valued so you get more, with every crate opening there is 1/100 of an unusual hat, there worth anywhere from £40 to £1000

There doesn't have to be a profit.
I see a sexy unusual I must have, I learn that I can either unbox it with chances next to none OR I can buy it for a certain amount of keys. I don't know of other possibilities about where to buy keys so I buy directly from the store, and get myself that sexy unusual. Person who sold me unusual now has 50 keys to sell.
JUST AS ONE EXAMPLE, there's a shitton others.

Not to mention the time when there was an injection of keys from Russia, bought with stolen CC's and stuff.

Keys are basically playing the lottery. You buy a key and when you open a crate, hope to win something more expensive.

example - you can get game for 10$, but some guy offer you this game for 3 keys, so cheaper buy 7 keys = 7.5$ and trade, then trader sells this keys and get ~6$ (he got this game on sale for 5$) all have profit :)

Cheat? wtf you talking about lol
Edit: Eh, apparently it's a troll, and not very good at it, yet I managed to fall for it :(

i don't really understand it..
but i've been trading for them anyway, as they seem to be some kind of weird form of currency :/

Some people steal credit cards, and use them to buy keys. Then they sell the keys under market price as a weird way of laundering money.

Lol, damn troll.

Oh, not this again - -. Explaining key routes require times and effort. The reason for key to stay as such price, always can be explained in supply and demand force of keys.

Supply of keys: There is only one source to provide more keys --> from Valve store only. (Thus this tends to be unchanged)
Demand of keys: People want keys as a currency to pay/trade for things they want. (It could be games, in game items)

Supply of in-game-item: Available both via store or random drops.
Demand of in-game-item: As long as it cheaper than buying from store. Demand tends to stay the same as normal player would only remains with 1 set of item they like. (For example you would normally sticks to 1 hat in Tf2 for 1 character. It took a while for that to change. New items drop makes you let go of old one easily. Thus demand is constant.)

Supply of steam games: There is huge game on sale off, price reduction from CIS based game. (A game cost at 15 USD in USA store could be as low as 10 USD in CIS. Applied in sale off as well).
Demand of steam games pay with key as currency: Relative high as supply of steam games are good, and cheap. (assume that all transaction for game only occurs because steam game is cheap thanks to CIS)

Now that you have 3 graphs of supply/demand curve model. The shifting in one factor could cause others to move. Let the order be:

A: Keys. (key supply will never changed, it is a horizontal curve, available in unlimited quantities)

B: Items. (Supply always increase (as more players get drops), Demand tends to stay the same)

C: Games. (Supply tends to intensive as sellers willing to sell even at 0.1 USD profit[ Or perfect competition). Demand is high because games are relatively cheaper)

Assuming no trading happens between A,B,C, no relationships are founded. Key price always at 2.5 USD.

in B: Supply of items are in great number. Buyer only pay via keys as long it lower than cost in store. Supply force is stronger than demand force. Thus moving supply curves forward while demand stays the same. --> key price reduce.

In C: Now that you have lots of key in your inventory after selling an in game item drops. You will want to spend them to buy games. (else you would just repeat the cycle in B). Assume the game in USA store cost at 15 USD while CIS only 10 USD.

You willing to pay at less than 6 keys (counting keys as 2.5 USD). However, as you got high supply of good items in B, you got abundant number of keys.

This push up the demand for games (Games cheaper, more buying power from selling items). Thus the maximum you willing to pay is at 7 keys.
However, CIS sellers willing to go as low as 3-->5 keys (because normally they only buy games at sale off price). Thus people spending more keys to buy games and CIS sellers got more keys in their hand.

Now back at A market, because there is secondary market. You can only sell your keys (cash out) if you go lower than 2.5 USD in store.

So why keys are marked at 1.8 USD in outside market ?

Because as we speak in C, people got more keys and they willing to cash out at any price as long as it gives them profit.
Because steam sale off as high as 75% (sometimes rarely at 80%). Coincidentally, 1.8/2.5 is at around 72%.

Hence keys are at that price. (Please remember that CIS price store usually lower than USA store. Let's say a 75% sale off price is at 2 USD in USA. But to CIS users it would cost less than 1.8 USD(mark down by 20-25%). You pay 1 key, they sell that keys at 1.8 USD for non-profit). With the appearance of trading cards drop via per 10 USD in store during summer and 10 USD via using free-to-play. This create some profits for both side, thus increase surplus to both) The trade only happens when all these conditions are met: Your cost is lower than buying from USA store. The profit is good for CIS seller.

Your__ constraint: [---------->xxxxxx>USA store price

CIS seller constraint: [---------->CIS store price

As long price price is is within that xxxx scale, trade occurs.

Price of keys in secondary market will go up when:

• Less items drop in B, less people want to play TF2,Dota 2.
• Leads to: Sellers hard to sell games because people got less keys.
• Leads to: less keys supply, demand stays the same --> higher price.

However, as we see how keys price drop dramatically during summer sale, this confirms my explanation.

• People uses more keys to buy games. (Both using valve store keys or buying from secondary market. 2 sources !)
• Game seller got more keys.
• Supply more keys to secondary market. (1)
• While keys demands can be satisfied both via steam store or secondary market. (2)

(1),(2) --> More keys supply in secondary market while demands force are spit into different market. There are more than 1 market for key: price ranging from 1.8 -> 2.2 USD (not accounting for steam store). Lower price usually means higher risk. Eventually in perfect market, key price will stay at the smallest possible price (1.8 USD) until supply is not enough, driven them to higher level *but will never exceed 2.5.

To understand more why people selling keys at low price. Let's say that tomb Raider is at 50 USD and is on sale off 12 at USD. You can sell your keys at 2 USD ,selling 6 keys to buy the game. But to you, that game is worth more than 12 USD. Hence you willing to pay more than that 12 USD value. You can either over pay in keys value to buy from others. OR LOWER your key price, sell mores keys at lower price to reach that 12 USD value.

Good luck understanding economics terms.

Quiet Easy to Understand this

Firstly, before Valve sync then price of tf2 keys in all countries, every key costed just $1 or even lower in Russia and CIS countires like Ukraine...so u will find (by Google) lots of threads that posted by sellers those wanted real money, they would sell dozens of keys @ a very low price about $1.15 ~ $ 1.25...Now the price of a tf2 key just went up in the community market or in a grey market since Valve synced the price worldwidely. However, we don't have so many crates to open so there are still so many currency tf2 keys, to trade them for what u want, u must lower the price right?

The second reason is just mentioned, the unusuals and other rare items... For example, I occasionally got an unusual item by opening a crate, I'm hurried to trade it away so I will trade it for tf2 keys - the most common currency item. If i want to sell the keys for real money, (that's very common for a pro trader), I have to lower the price of keys than the official store, and if I want real money badly, I have to make sure that my price if lower than other key sellers