Is Steamgifts rigged?

Gamblers gonna gamble and lose that's just how it is. This is years of experience talking.

Mind you you aren't losing anything but time and feelings on here.

Well, 48 wins per 32,526 entries means ~678 giveaways per win. If average number of entries in giveaways you enter is about 600-700 (I didn't count, but sounds possible) - then it all fits just well. Of course, it's very rough estimate, but even so, I can't see anything suspicious.

it took me ages before i got my 1st win here and i only made a few giveaway
mostly used steam companion to giveaway games. swapped over to this website full time when they shut that one down :(
liked the system of dumping all your points into one game vs the one entry system here

Registered: 8 years ago

Giveaways Entered: 68,562 (after the new site update) and around 30-31k at the old website so in total ...99-100k
Gifts Won:107
Gifts Sent: 152

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That's like asking if the lottery is rigged, since I've been playing for years and never won!

Contrary to widespread opinion there's a legit - no autojoin scripts needed - way to win. I found an intuitive way to predict when the quantum wave function collapses by carefully inspecting chicken intestines and bam! a new game for me.

As a prerequisite you must have a deep understanding of quantum field theory to pull it off though.

No, I don't think SteamGifts is rigged, but I DO think the formula they use for determining "luck" behind the scenes is wrong. For awhile, I picked giveaways to enter based primarily on chance-to-win. My luck was positive nearly every single month I did that, and sometimes VERY positive. I didn't like that I was accumulating a large library of games I'd almost certainly never had time to play, so I switched to entering giveaways for games that are very highly rated. Since doing so, my "luck" has been almost entirely negative, with a few months being slightly positive (0.26 or less).

The consistency of this pattern is too high to be a believable coincidence, so I'm pretty confident that they're making some math errors in calculating the monthly overall probability, and they're underestimating the chance to win unpopular giveaways, while overestimating the chance to win popular giveaways, resulting in a misleading graph on your Stats page.

That doesn't have anything to do with you losing all giveaways in the last 4 years, though. That's most likely a combination of poor luck and primarily entering popular giveaways with very low individual probabilities to win (even the least popular public giveaways have very low probabilities, but the most popular ones have near-zero chances to win, especially at the lower levels).

I could be wrong, but it seems like these days fewer games are being given away and they have more entries. So more competition for limited giveaways.

Registered
6 years ago
Giveaways Entered
89,095
Gifts Won
464 ($3,845.47)
Gifts Sent
177 ($2,009.25)

100% rigged.

I think it may be rigged in a way that the more you give the more you get. Notice how users with a lot of wins usually also gave away a lot of games? I feel like it's good to give away something from time to time to win more often. Who knows.

Life itself is rigged, what make you believe SG wasn't.

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I don't think it's rigged but honestly sometimes i wondered how it was possible some extremely rare users (sometimes lvl 0-1 doesn't change anything) won 20 PUBLIC (not group/whitelist/private) giveaways within 6 months (it's a random number, it's just to give a rough idea), all with +700 entries, while they entered a very low number of giveaways.

I mean it's fair and great of course, but it's just that I don't understand how it's possible in terms of probabilities because it seems much more difficult to win repeatedly 20x (1/700 entries) within 6 months range than 1x national lottery. But please don't hesitate to explain because i always sucked at maths.

(Notice however that it's funny because this morning i went to kiosk, and just before me came a random woman with a dozen lottery tickets from/for her friend, and i've been very impressed because 10/12 were winning tickets 5 to 200€ every ticket, crazy probability no ? The kiosk guy said "oh first time i see something like that") -> conclusion : reality is rigged please i want a refund for reality

edit :

Oh i just remembered in the opposite there was a story about a guy who got i no more how many (but it was a lot) accidents in his life, including plane accident and survived all.

This sort of reverse situation is crazy too in term of probability !

edit 2 :

I just remembered this another incredible story too !! Maybe you already knew it ?

https://www.irishcentral.com/roots/history/violet-jessop-disasters

Depends on your odds. Entering small giveaways with 30 entries is going to give you higher odds than joining 2000+ entry giveaways all day every day

What, no potato poll option? :V

True randomness might not exist whenever code is involved that's being executed on logic processors. It's, theoretically speaking, pseudo-randomness that's likely deterministic and as such might be gamed to increase your odds. I.e. for example higher odds if you're one of the first or last to enter.

Who knows

I grabbed your wins for myself.
With my magical hands!

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I dunno,maybe,although I'm Inclined to believe that SG isn't rigged.Its just the bots that mess up GAs.
Try to go for Invite-only,private or Whitelist GAs,you'll have a higher chance there cuz of less bots and less entries.

You need to bribe the cosmic feline with the special astral foods for a 5% extra chance of winning a game during starry Saturday nights.

If you lick a frog I hear your luck will increase.

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Of course it's rigged! ;)

I've only been here for two months and I've won every giveaway ever created.