New Stat on SG Profile [Estimated Wins] Wishlist Works Too~

I don't know how the estimate is made, but the accuracy depends on the type of giveaway. Giveaways with few entries (i.e. private) give an extimated win's accurancy far less accurate.

Example: An user enters n=1000 giveaways with 1000 other people. The probability to win is p=1/1000=0.001 each. The expected number of wins is m=np=1 with a variance s=npq=np(1-p)=0.999~1. It is a binomial distribution approximable to Poisson's.

The same user enters n=100 giveaways with 10 other people. The probability to win is p=1/10=0.1 each. The expected number of wins is m=np=10 with a variance s=npq=np(1-p)=9. Again a binomial distribution slightly approximable to Poisson's.

Globally, the user enters 1100 giveaways and he expects to win 11 times with a standard deviation 3 (i.e. there is 68% probability that he wins a number of times between 8 and 14). The standard deviation is affected principaly by easy-to-win (i.e. private) giveaways.

it seems, im gonna win something soon :D

Really awesome!Now I know, at least when I sould win something.....

Mines pretty accurate. 8 wins, 8.48 estimated wins.

Gifts Won - 53

Estimated Wins - 49.52

Gifts Won 12
Estimated Wins 16.95

Well, it always felt like I was a little unlucky. I'll see how it will change in a half a year.

Comparing to others, mine seems quite a bit off. Actual wins - 10, estimated wins - 14. In my opinion 10 / ~3700 is pretty good, so I won't complain.

o, I remember when CG was playing around with this during the summer

1.18 :p

Gifts Won: 22
Estimated Wins: 15.56

Also, just won a game today, lol.

Pretty cool feature.

Gifts Won 70 (71 actually, just won Oblivion :p)

Estimated Wins 77.44

Just saw this feature. But I'm special: http://imgur.com/hWcCTJU
I have posted exactly 100 times more comments than I have estimated wins. I think I'm going to try to keep this ratio. ^^

I seem to be slightly unlucky with 10 wins for 14.74 estimated and knowing that I won 2 of those over the past 2 days.

Hm, I want me 4.87 wins =/

Gifts Won: 54
Estimated Wins: 46.82
Clearly I'm stealing wins from the rest of everyone else's statistics.

Gifts Won: 49
Estimated Wins: 60.99

Come on, Steamgifts! You owe me 11.99 games!

What does the topic title mean by Wishlight works?

Does the stat take into account giveaways that have not closed yet?

4.00 ;-;

It just rubs in how unlucky I am. ;_;

9.47, so the higher this is the more unlucky?

3.18 estimated wins and won 4 things. Not bad, guess I'm just a tiny bit luckier than I should be.

Ok unentered a few giveaways, and it does change, so with my 50 open giveaways still to close my wins might go up to reflect the stat shown.

5006 entries, 6 wins, estimated wins is 9.45...hmph

Won: 11
Expected: 8.64

Don't understimate my force!!!

My estimated wins is higher than yours. That means I'm better than you >:D

Hohohohoho